(Kitco News) – It was a positive day for most financial markets as stocks and precious metals climbed higher after data showed that the U.S. consumer and labor market remained strong, easing recession concerns.
Cryptos were not so lucky, however, as an early rally that saw Bitcoin (BTC) bulls pushing for $60,000 came to an abrupt halt at $59,900, at which point BTC rapidly turned lower, with the price falling 4.7% over the next three hours.
BTC/USD Chart by TradingView
“This move might partially be due to concerns over the U.S. government's BTC transfer, which stirred fears of potential liquidation,” said analysts at Secure Digital Markets. “Equities felt the pinch too but quickly bounced back, leaving crypto in the dust over the last 24 hours.”
“Thursday saw stocks rally as upbeat consumer and labor data restored some investor confidence,” they noted. “Retail sales climbed 1% in July, beating expectations, while weekly jobless claims dipped. This positive data helped ease recession fears and gave the broader market a boost after the rocky start to August, driven by disappointing jobs numbers from earlier in the month.”
“It’s clear the crypto market is now trailing behind its usual counterpart, Nasdaq,” they said. “With global economic data shaking up the scene, crypto prices are stuck in a range.”
While digital assets are struggling to gain momentum, stocks are firing on all cylinders. At the closing bell, the S&P, Dow, and Nasdaq all finished higher, up 1.61%, 1.39%, and 2.34%, respectively.
It was also a positive day for spot gold and silver, with the yellow metal up 0.38% and trading at $2,456.60 at the time of writing, while the gray metal climbed 2.94% and trades at $28.32.
Bitcoin is currently down 3.6%, trading at $56,917, with bulls fighting to hold the $57,000 support level.
Bitcoin still on track to hit $150k
“Bitcoin closed last month (July) in green and even though August started on a very strong decline, the market has managed to recover most of its losses before the middle of the month,” noted TradingView analyst TradingShot. “This shows incredible buying force right on the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level of the 2021 all-time high (ATH).”
Zooming out from the choppy day-to-day price action BTC is currently experiencing, TradingShot looked at the monthly chart “and the Bullish Crosses of the MACD.”
“In the past 10 years, we have had this formation only 5 times, all of which during Bull Cycles,” he said. “The most recent one was in June 2023 and needless to mention, BTC had a remarkable rally (its first of the Bull Cycle) after it.”
“From a time perspective within the Cycle, the June 2023 Cross, resembles the Bullish Crosses of November 2019 and December 2015,” he noted. “They were formed 25 and 23 months respectively after the High of the previous Cycle and following their formation, BTC peaked exactly 24 months (731 days) later.”
TradingShot highlighted that the June 2023 MACD bullish cross “was formed 19 months after the previous Cycle High, so if it follows the previous peak patterns, then Bitcoin should peak around June 2025. Symmetrically, it appears that we are currently in an above 0.786 Fib consolidation phase (blue circles),” which he said is similar to what was seen in November 2020 and February 2017.
“The bullish break-outs that followed after such consolidations initiated the Bull Cycles' 2nd rallies to the eventual ATH,” he observed. “If we were to make a rough projection on that high, we can look into the Channel Up since 2014. That pattern formed the Cycle Highs above it every time (red arcs), so technically we could be looking at values between 200k - 300k.”
Addressing the more “conservative path within the Channel Up,” TradingShot said, “If BTC hits the top of that dotted Channel, it will reach a price as high as $150000, which in our opinion is a very desirable level to start taking long-term profits.”
Market analyst Miles Deutscher noted that the current price action is reminiscent of how Bitcoin performed between August and October of 2023, which was choppy and sideways before an eventual rally in November.
This feels eerily similar to August-October last year.
• Retail interest is evaporating fast (YT views have fallen off a cliff over the past week)
• Apathy amongst existing market participants
• Lack of clear narratives
(and the #Bitcoin price action looks identical too) pic.twitter.com/Y37iDoeSOl— Miles Deutscher (@milesdeutscher) August 14, 2024
“Ironically this is probably the best time to lock in/accumulate/study new protocols etc.,” Deutscher said in a follow-up post. “Last time we had a period of sustained contraction (in 2023), the subsequent move upwards was violent. Just have to hold on and stay focused until then.”
As for what could help reignite the crypto bull market, Capriole Fund founder Charles Edwards pointed squarely at the “exploding” global money supply.
Global money supply is exploding up. Plus we just broke out of a massive 4 year consolidation. What do you think this means for Bitcoin? pic.twitter.com/eA2vtOo6Zd
— Charles Edwards (@caprioleio) August 13, 2024
Altcoin gains washed away in afternoon pullback
The sudden afternoon downturn in the crypto market wiped out most of the gains for the top 200 tokens, and at the time of writing, only a dozen tokens are still trading in the green.
Daily cryptocurrency market performance. Source: Coin360
Threshold (T) led the resilient bunch with a gain of 3.9%, followed by an increase of 2.9% for cat in a dogs world (MEW), and a gain of 2.4% for Aave (AAVE). This time, it was the losers recording double-digit price moves, with Mog Coin (MOG) down 17%, Dymension (DYM) losing 12.2%, and Popcat (POPCAT) falling 11.6%.
The overall cryptocurrency market cap now stands at $2.02 trillion, and Bitcoin’s dominance rate is 55.7%.
