Modest price pressure on gold as Jackson Hole/Powell awaited

Kitco Media
By Jim Wyckoff
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Updated
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(Kitco News) - Gold prices are mildly lower and silver near steady in early U.S. trading Thursday. Some light profit taking by the shorter-term futures traders is featured in gold today. However, the precious metals markets are mostly in pause modes just ahead of the beginning of a major central bank confab. December gold was last down $13.40 at $2,534.10. September silver was up $0.025 at $29.560.

The marketplace is awaiting the annual Jackson Hole, Wyoming Federal Reserve symposium that begins later today. Past years have seen central bank officials make markets-moving pronouncements at the confab. Fed Chairman Powell is slated to speak at the symposium on Friday morning and may give some guidance on the size of an expected U.S. interest rate cut in September. Wednesday afternoon’s FOMC minutes contained no big surprises.

Asian and European stock indexes were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to slightly higher openings when the New York day session begins. Trader/investor attitudes are more upbeat at present, as seen by the S&P 500 and Nasdaq stock indexes hitting four-week highs this week.

In overnight news, the Eurozone got some downbeat manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) data today. Reads a Dow Jones Newswires headline: “Eurozone economy gets Olympics boost but industry still struggles.” Another Dow Jones headline reads: “Eurozone wages slow sharply, paving the way for ECB rate cut.”

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index higher. Nymex crude oil prices are slightly up and are trading around $72.25 a barrel. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching 3.792%.

U.S. economic data due out Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the Chicago Fed national activity index, the U.S. flash and services PMIs, existing home sales and the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City manufacturing survey.

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Technically, December gold bulls have the strong overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $2,600.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $2,450.00. First resistance is seen at the overnight high of $2,551.40 and then at the contract high of $2,570.40. First support is seen at this week’s low of $2,523.70 and then at $2,500.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.5.

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September silver futures bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage and have momentum on their side now. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $30.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $28.00. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $30.035 and then at $30.50. Next support is seen at Wednesday’s low of $29.23 and then at $29.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

(Hey! My “Markets Front Burner” weekly email report is my best writing and analysis, I think, because I get to look ahead at the marketplace and do some market price forecasting. Plus, I’ll throw in an educational feature to move you up the ladder of trading/investing success. And it’s free! Sign up here; it’s real easy. https://www.kitco.com/services

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Jim Wyckoff

Jim Wyckoff has spent over 25 years involved with the stock, financial and commodity markets. He was a financial journalist with the FWN newswire service for many years, including stints as a reporter on the rough-and-tumble commodity futures trading floors in Chicago and New York. As a journalist, he has covered every futures market traded in the U.S., at one time or another.

Jim is the proprietor of the "Jim Wyckoff on the Markets" analytical, educational and trading advisory service. Jim also worked as a technical analyst for Dow Jones Newswires and as the senior market analyst with TraderPlanet.com. Jim is also a consultant with the highly respected "Pro Farmer" agricultural advisory service. Jim was also the head equities analyst at CapitalistEdge.com. He received his degree from Iowa State University in Ames, Iowa, where he studied journalism and economics.

Follow Jim daily on Kitco.com as he provides both AM and PM roundups and a daily Technical Special. 1 877 963-NEWS jwyckoff at kitco.com

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