Mild price pressure on gold, silver after as-expected U.S. inflation data

Kitco Media
By Jim Wyckoff
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Updated
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(Kitco News) - Gold and silver prices are modestly weaker in early U.S. trading Friday, following mild losses overnight and just after a highly anticipated U.S. inflation report that came in very close to market expectations. December gold was last down $5.20 at $2,555.00 and September silver was down $0.052 at $29.525.

The U.S. data point of the week today saw the personal income and outlays report for July, including its inflation gauges that Fed officials monitor very closely, come in just about as expected. The PCE price index was up 2.5%, year-on-year, right as expected and is unchanged from the June report. The “core” PCE index (excluding food and energy) was up 2.6%, year-on-year, and was seen up 2.7% annually in July and compares to up 2.6% in the June report. Markets showed little reaction to the numbers.

Asian and European stock indexes were mostly up overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to higher openings when the New York day session begins. Risk appetite has been more upbeat in the general marketplace recently.  

In overnight news, China continued to ease its monetary policy by purchasing a net 100 billion yuan worth of Treasury bonds this month.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index near steady. The USDX has posted a strong rebound late this week after hitting an eight-month low Tuesday. Nymex crude oil prices are near steady and trading around $76.00 a barrel. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching 3.871%.

Other U.S. economic data due out Friday includes the Chicago ISM business survey, and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.

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Technically, December gold bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $2,600.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $2,475.00. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $2,564.30 and then at the contract high of $2,570.40. First support is seen at Thursday’s low of $2,536.50 and then at this week’s low of $2,527.80. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0.

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September silver futures bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage as prices are still in an uptrend on the daily bar chart. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $31.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $28.00. First resistance is seen at $30.00 and then at this week’s high of $30.225. Next support is seen at this week’s low of $29.08 and then at last week’s low of $28.795. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

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Jim Wyckoff

Jim Wyckoff has spent over 25 years involved with the stock, financial and commodity markets. He was a financial journalist with the FWN newswire service for many years, including stints as a reporter on the rough-and-tumble commodity futures trading floors in Chicago and New York. As a journalist, he has covered every futures market traded in the U.S., at one time or another.

Jim is the proprietor of the "Jim Wyckoff on the Markets" analytical, educational and trading advisory service. Jim also worked as a technical analyst for Dow Jones Newswires and as the senior market analyst with TraderPlanet.com. Jim is also a consultant with the highly respected "Pro Farmer" agricultural advisory service. Jim was also the head equities analyst at CapitalistEdge.com. He received his degree from Iowa State University in Ames, Iowa, where he studied journalism and economics.

Follow Jim daily on Kitco.com as he provides both AM and PM roundups and a daily Technical Special. 1 877 963-NEWS jwyckoff at kitco.com

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