(Kitco News) – Gold prices saw a slow and steady start to the week, but escalating trade tensions and a potential pivot signal from Powell drove the yellow metal to new heights once again.
Spot gold kicked off the week trading at $3,180 per ounce before popping back above $3,220 early Sunday evening. After a quick retest of support at $3,200, gold settled into a relatively narrow $35 trading range for the next three days, with spot gold closing out Tuesday’s North American trading session at $3,231 per ounce.
But as had been the case often over the last few weeks, the fireworks happened during the Asian session, which saw spot gold rocket all the way to $3,290 shortly after 1:00 a.m. Eastern. By the time European traders jumped on board, gold had broken the $3,300 barrier, and when markets heard Fed chair Jerome Powell's scathing assessment of the impact of the Trump administration’s tariffs on inflation and growth, they pushed gold to a fresh all-time high just shy of $3,360 per ounce.
Gold prices did pull back Wednesday evening, and the spot price dropped to a session low $3,284 during Thursday's trading, but the yellow metal quickly reclaimed $3,200 and traded comfortably above that level heading into the long Easter weekend.
The latest Kitco News Weekly Gold Survey showed industry experts and retail traders reining in their bullish bias on gold prices as the yellow metal breathes rarified air above $3,300 per ounce.
“Up,” said Adrian Day, president of Adrian Day Asset Management. “Momentum remains with gold, particularly with volatility in the stock market. The reasons for gold buying over the past two year remain.”
“Gold reached a record high near $3358 and looks set to consolidate in holiday-thinned markets,” said Marc Chandler, managing director at Bannockburn Global Forex. “Initial support may be near $3250. Some consolidation may be needed to keep the bull orderly. Buying on pullbacks remains likely given the larger macro backdrop. $3500 seems like a reasonable target in the coming weeks.”
“TRADING TOP,” said Mark Leibovit, publisher of the VR Metals/Resource Letter. “SHORT VIA ZSL AND GLL.”
“Up,” said James Stanley, senior market strategist at Forex.com. “It’s been another massive week, and I still don’t see any reason to change bias. It is increasingly difficult to chase the move higher given bullish momentum but there’s also no clear evidence yet that the move is over.”
Sean Lusk, co-director of commercial hedging at Walsh Trading, said the market is still in the throes of a full-on flight to safety, and gold continues to benefit from the fear.
“They're taking a little profit today, as they should ahead of a three-day weekend, but we'll see what they do with the dip,” he said.
Lusk sees investment pouring into gold from every quarter. “You’ve got the spec community buying, you’ve got the people on TV telling you to buy, you’ve got central banks continuing to buy,” he said. “We hit our 25% higher on the year target at $3,301. Next level up is $3,434, somewhere in that area.”
“I don't know if we get there, this seems way too overdone,” he added. “But the stock market is going to remain volatile.”
Lusk said that however Trump’s tariff threats shake out, Fed chair Powell signaled a potential pivot of his own yesterday, and markets would do well to listen.
“He was more hawkish than anybody thought possible,” he said. “He also said the jobs market is on real good footing, so that leads me to believe they don't think there's going to be a recession. Neither do I, not when they have job numbers like this. That's what I took out of it. As of right now he is right, the numbers don't bear that out at all. But you haven't seen the repercussions of some of these actions, and you won't until the end of the second quarter.”
Lusk expects the uncertainty surrounding trade tariffs will continue to dominate global markets, which will continue to push gold prices higher.
“Provided that nothing new enters into the market, like a trade deal or an announcement that the U.S. and China are talking, I think the trajectory obviously is still up,” Lusk said. “This is a minor little blip here of profit taking into a three-day weekend. All-time highs create some pullbacks. But nothing has changed, because nothing has changed on the tariff front.”
“When you have more uncertainty, the gold market is going to lean to the upside, dips are going to be bought, and that's what's happened,” he added. “I think this thing has another run up to that 30% target up at $3,440, in that area. I think that would be it though.”
This week, 16 analysts participated in the Kitco News Gold Survey, with Wall Street pulling back from last week’s near-unanimous bullishness while still maintaining a strong bullish bias. 10 experts, or 63%, expected to see gold prices rise once again during the week ahead, while four others, representing 25%, predicted price declines for the precious metal. The remaining two analysts, or 12% of the total, saw gold holding steady near its new highs.
Meanwhile, 312 votes were cast in Kitco’s online poll, with Main Street sentiment also scaling back somewhat. 195 retail traders, or 63%, looked for gold prices to rise higher next week, while another 57, or 18%, expected gold to trade lower. The remaining 60 investors, representing 19% of the total, saw prices trending sideways during the week ahead.
Next week is light on economic data releases, with markets also closed for the Easter Monday holiday. Wednesday will see the release of S&P Global Composite Flash PMI for April, along with March New Home Sales data, followed by Durable Goods, Weekly Jobless Claims and Existing Home Sales on Thursday, and the final print of University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment.
Markets will also be paying close attention to Fed speakers Kashkari, Goolsbee, Beth and Harker following Powell’s comments on Wednesday.
“I am neutral on gold for the coming week,” said Colin Cieszynski, chief market strategist at SIA Wealth Management. “Gold has had a good run lately and may pause for a few days as focus shifts from macro issues to earnings and guidance from individual companies.”
“Lower,” said Rich Checkan, president and COO of Asset Strategies International. “Fully expect to see a bout of profit-taking after Wednesday’s peak over $3,300 per ounce. It is time to back-fill and build some support at this new highwater mark.”
“Up,” said Darin Newsom, senior market analyst at Barchart.com. “In a nutshell, it still comes down to triggering algorithms. We know the U.S. president will say whatever – not necessarily do whatever – but say whatever to create headlines to trigger those algorithms back into buying, because in his mind, the U.S. equity markets still equate to the economy but it doesn't change the long term picture that we've topped these markets out, and they're going to go down for a while.”
Newsom said yesterday’s comments from Fed chair were also very significant, because Powell made it clear that he’s not waiting on Trump to define the situation and try to force the Fed’s hand.
“I've thought for a long time that Chairman Powell has a good handle on the situation,” he said. “So when he comes out yesterday and says, ‘Look, this is going to cause inflation, we cannot continue to talk about cutting rates, we have to start talking about the possibility of raising rates,’ he's absolutely right. You cannot cut rates in this environment where we know inflation's going to go up, where the dollar is getting its legs chopped off every day. We know inflation's coming back, and you cannot hamstring the central bank by saying, “You are not allowed to raise rates, you have to cut rates.’ They won't do it. You have to have that flexibility, that's the only way to battle inflation.”
“The previous time around, the Fed got bullied into not raising rates when inflation started to take off because of all the trade war and tariff silliness. The Fed hesitated,” Newsom said. “This time, he's not going to do that because we saw what happened. Inflation didn't have any breaks on it back from 2016 to 2020. It was too late, the horse left the barn, and then the fight throughout the entire Biden administration was trying to get inflation corralled again to the point where the Fed could start lowering rates.”
“His stance yesterday is that the president can say whatever he wants, he's not going to bully the Fed,” he added. “He does not run the Fed like he wants to. [Trump] said he was going to have the final say on all interest rate decisions. It didn't happen, and it's not going to happen. Chairman Powell was making that very clear yesterday.”
Newsom said that after the weeks of trade tariffs, pivots, and counter-pivots, global markets are rendering their own verdict on the United States.
“The dollar continues to collapse while gold continues to rally,” he said. “What this tells me is the rest of the world, quite frankly, has lost faith in the United States. It does not take the United States seriously anymore. There's no reason to. And so, while the U.S. dollar should be going up, we still see global investors selling the dollar and buying other currencies. They've lost faith in the U.S., and I think this also is coming to bear on U.S. equities as well. The rest of the world, global investment, the investment industry as a whole, has simply lost faith in the ability of the United States to be taken seriously.”
Given the current environment, Newsom believes gold can continue to rally on top of its already dramatic gains.
“I don't see any reason for the trend to change,” he said. “Right now, it continues to be driven by the Asian market, which to me is telling, because again, the U.S. is not the leader. Other parts of the world, Asia, parts of Europe, that's what's leading the market. The U.S. isn't going to get smart and jump into the gold until it's too late. That's when it'll probably collapse. But for now, because of the constant uncertainty, I don't see gold coming down.”
“I still see smart investment money going over into gold,” Newsom said. “Doesn't matter if it's $3,000, $3,300, $4,300, whatever. I think it IS the safe haven market. It's not crude oil, it's not bonds or anything like this. As far as futures go, to me it's still gold. Gold still reigns as the safe haven market.”
Alex Kuptsikevich, senior market analyst at FxPro, said gold is in the midst of extending its epic rally this week, and it has room to run higher.
“Gold has been on the offensive since touching the 50-day moving average early last week,” he said. “We view the latest rally as the completion of the correction from the late December spike. The upside potential allows us to expect quotes above $3500.”
Kuptsikevich noted that the gold price is currently 60% above its 200-week moving average. “By comparison, in 2020, with a gap of just over 50%, the price stalled, then corrected, and went sideways for two years,” he said. “The last time a higher gap-up was recorded was in 2011 at around 70%, which was accompanied by a prolonged bear market. In the current situation, the 70% breakaway can be achieved when the $3540 level is reached.”
Analysts at CPM Group are recommending investors stay long gold and prepare to buy the dips, with potential for $3,500 in the next two weeks.
“Gold prices blew right past CPM’s $3,300 upside target this week, as the maelstrom of economic and political uncertainties and financial markets volatility that erupted with President Trump’s tariff announcements 2 April continues,” they wrote. “These issues will not disappear today or tomorrow, but appear likely to grow more problematic in the weeks ahead, as the U.S. government is pushed by the Administration toward several Constitutional crises with the Supreme Court and the compliant Congress.”
They noted that gold prices have gained around $700 since the start of 2025, and roughly half of that in the past nine trading days. “This leads to a few market adages,” the analysts said. “Never stand in front of a runaway train. This suggests staying long,” and “Anything that rises $350 in nine days can fall $350 in nine days. This suggests short-term investors take profits.”
“Beyond the ultra-short-term investment horizon of these Trade Recommendations, CPM continues to project higher prices over the next two years, at least,” they added. “This reflects CPM’s economic and political projections, for the United States, other major nations, and the world.”
“Down,” said Michael Moor, founder of Moor Analytics. “The break below 33456 (+4 per/hour) this morning warns of decent pressure, unless we break back above where this comes in at 33490 (+4 tics per/hour starting at 11:20pm EST). In a higher time frame, we are still in an overall bull trend from August of 2018, and likely in the later stages. Part of this is a prediction I made of $151 minimum, $954 (+) maximum from $2,148.4 – of which we have attained $1,223.5 FULFILLING THE MAXIMUM! This is ON HOLD.”
“On a lower time frame, the trade above 27041 (-.6 of a tic per/hour) has brought in $667.8 of strength,” he added. “The trade above 27247 (-.6 of a tic per/hour) projected this upward $55 minimum, $235 (+) maximum—we have attained $647.2. On 3/3 we left a minor bullish reversal below—we have rallied $470.8 from the 29011 open. These are ON HOLD.”
And Kitco Senior Analyst Jim Wyckoff sees nothing standing in the way of higher gold prices next week. “Steady higher as charts bullish and safe-haven demand continues solid.”
At the time of writing, spot gold last traded at $3,325.01 per ounce for a loss of 0.55% on the day but a solid gain of 4.56% on the week.
