(Kitco News) - While gold might not have much room left to the upside after running to an all-time high of $3,500 an ounce, investors should not expect to see any correction in the precious metal through 2026.
In the latest commodity outlook, analysts at the World Bank expect gold prices to average this year at $3,250 an ounce, a gain of 36% from last year’s average price. The updated forecast is a significant departure from November, when analysts were expecting to see relatively flat price action.
Looking further ahead, the World Bank expects gold prices to average around $3,200 an ounce in 2026, down 1.5% from this year’s forecast.
However, looking at the broader landscape, the analysts expect gold to maintain its value and be the standout asset in the commodity space for the next two years.
“Strong safe-haven demand for gold is expected to persist in the near term, buoyed by uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, and concerns about volatility in major financial markets,” the analysts said. “Prices are expected to remain about 155% above their 2015–19 average throughout the forecast period.”
“If geopolitical tensions and policy uncertainty become even more pronounced, gold prices could exceed current projections,” the analysts added.
Along with its bullish outlook, the World Bank has also shifted its expectations around silver. Analysts had been expecting silver to outpace gold this year, driven by industrial demand.
The World Bank expects silver prices to average this year around $33 an ounce, up 16.7% from last year’s average price. For 2026, the analysts see prices rising to $34 an ounce, an increase of 3% from this year.
Although weaker economic growth is expected to have a broad drag on all commodities, the analysts expect silver’s industrial demand to remain robust, providing support for prices.
“Silver demand is expected to grow steadily over the forecast horizon, supported by its role as both an alternative safe-haven financial asset and an input in growing industrial sectors like renewable energy technologies and semiconductors,” the analysts said. “Record-high industrial fabrication and global photovoltaic installations are set to support demand for silver this year, although these industries face potential downside risks from recent tariff announcements. Additionally, economic and geopolitical uncertainty could boost silver’s safe-haven appeal to investors.”
Both silver and gold are expected to handily beat the broader commodity market. The World Bank sees commodity prices falling 12% this year as slowing economic activity weighs on demand. Commodity prices are expected to decline by another 5% in 2026.
“Oil prices are expected to exert substantial downward pressure on the aggregate commodity index in 2025, as a marked slowdown in global oil consumption coincides with expanding supply. The anticipated commodity price softening is broad-based, however, with more than half of the commodities in the forecast set to decrease this year, many by more than 10 percent,” the analysts said. “Overall, risks to the baseline commodity price projections are tilted to the downside. This primarily reflects marked downside risks to the outlook for global economic growth amid rising trade tensions, and therefore also to commodity demand.”
The World Bank said that if commodity prices are going to turn around, the economic outlook needs to improve.
“More positively, a lasting rollback in trade restrictions could improve growth prospects and support a recovery in commodity prices,” the analysts said.
