(Kitco News) – After the aborted 2024 rally sapped its momentum, and the tariff threats of early 2025 clouded its industrial demand picture, silver ultimately delivered on its promise this year, and then some, as prices gained 170% and counting. And while big banks and institutions are growing cautions with silver on the verge of $80 per ounce, many industry experts and a solid majority of retail traders see another standout year for the gray metal in 2026.
Spot silver kicked off the year trading near $29.50 per ounce, after having closed 2024 with a pair of bounces right at the $29 support level.
The early part of the year saw silver attempting to recover from the steep losses it had incurred following the 2024 U.S. presidential election, finishing January and February 2025 above $31.50 per ounce before embarking on a slow but steady uptrend throughout the month of March which saw the price peak above $34.40 on March 26.
However, early April brought President Trump's ‘Liberation Day’ announcement of massive trade tariffs, which drove silver prices – along with gold and most other commodities – sharply lower. By April 3rd silver was trading right back down near key support at $29.50 per ounce, and though the gray metal managed to get back up to $33.57 by the 22nd, it remained stuck in a range between $32 and $33 per ounce through May.
June began with a bang, however, as spot silver broke through $34 to set a new 2025 high of $34.76 per ounce, and by the start of July it was trading near $37. Spot silver then peaked near $39.30 per ounce on July 22nd before pulling back to start August around $37.
From there, silver traded in a tight $1 range, but September brought fresh momentum to precious metals markets, driving the gray metal up to $41 to start the month. This would prove to be the beginning of silver's 2025 bull run, as it set steady gains thereafter, with only brief pauses to reytest support on the way up.
By October 1st, silver had established $47 as strong support, and on October 15th the spot price set a new all-time high above $54 per ounce.
November began with the gray metal in the midst of a pullback to retest support at $47, but renewed momentum saw silver prices peak not far from the October highs at $53.26 per ounce on November 11th. And after another pullback to test support at $50, silver prices ended the month in their sharpest uptrend yet.
December 1st saw spot silver trading at a fresh all-time high near $58.50 per ounce, and the gray metal was now going parabolic. By the 8th, it had breached $60 per ounce, and less than two weeks later it was trading above $70.
Silver's price momentum has only steepened since, and at the time of writing on December 26th, it was trading above $79 dollars per ounce, and just 70 cents short of the $80 level.
The Kitco News Annual Silver Survey showed a solid majority of retail traders predicting further gains for the gray metal in 2026, while leading analysts expect silver to move much higher next year, though others warn of early setbacks and a potential blow-off top.
Analysts at Heraeus cautioned in their 2026 Precious Metals Outlook that silver and other precious metal prices will likely trend lower for at least the first part of 2026.
“The rally that has seen gold and silver at record highs and PGM prices at their highest level in years, took prices too high too quickly,” they said. “While prices could push higher in the near-term, once the momentum wanes a period of consolidation is likely.”
“The high price is denting silver demand in a number of sectors,” they added, “but if gold moves higher, silver is likely to follow.”
Commodity analysts at TD Securities wrote in their 2026 outlook that they expect silver prices to moderate to the mid-$40s during the year to come.
“Heading into 2026, an epic-scaled #silverflood has resulted in the single largest wave of repletion in LBMA free-floating inventories on record,” they wrote. “With more than 212mn oz of silver now likely freely-available in the LBMA's vaults, London silver markets have already unwound a year's worth of drain in London inventories.”
The analysts said this massive replenishment should have a big impact on the outlook for silver because the price no longer needs to rise to refill global inventory pools.
“Yet, prices haven't collapsed post #silverflood,” they noted. “Lease rates have collapsed from historic levels, but prices haven't. Prices have only traded violently near ATHs, clashing with a statistically significant relationship between commodity vol and inventories.”
Commodity analysts at BMO Capital Markets said in their official 2026 outlook that there is room for precious metals to run higher in 2026 – though silver may not be able to hold onto its current all-time highs.
The bank sees silver prices averaging around $60 an ounce in the fourth quarter of 2026, which they expect will represent the high for the year. BMO sees silver prices averaging $56.3 an ounce for the year as a whole.
BMO analysts said that while they believe gold’s multi-year rally can continue in 2026, “we have turned more cautious on other precious metals like silver and platinum in comparison, which are showing signs of being over-bought in recent weeks,” they wrote.
“These metals will happily trade like gold when in a market deficit (and can even offer significantly more torque during price rallies, as we have seen this year); however, our latest updated models suggest the deficits for these metals are narrowing.”
This week, 176 retail investors participated in the Kitco News Silver Survey, with a near-majority of Main Street predicting the gray metal will challenge all-time highs in 2025.
212 retail traders, fully 57%, expect silver to trade above $100 per ounce next year, with spot already trading not far from $80. Another 27%, or 99 Main Street investors, predicted silver prices will trade between $80 and $100 in 2026, while 11%, or 43 participants, expect silver to top out somewhere between $60 and $80. The remaining 19 retail traders, representing 5% of the total, think silver prices will drop back into the $40 to $60 per ounce range they were trading in between September and early December of this year.
Maria Smirnova, Managing Partner at Sprott Inc. and Senior Portfolio Manager & Chief Investment Officer at Sprott Asset Management, was more bullish than the big banks. She told Kitco News in December that the supply problems which have plagued the silver market in 2025 remain unresolved, and surging investment demand has only exacerbated physical shortages where they’re most needed – setting the stage for strong gains in 2026.
Smirnova said the shift in the physical shortages from London to Shanghai is significant, because while the investment demand may be centered in the UK and U.S., the metal is actually being consumed in China.
“In my mind, it's more important to look at solar, because that's where the panels are made,” she said. “Solar consumes over 200 million [ounces], or about 20% of supply. So, if we're saying in China that the inventories are out, that's very significant, because that's where the metal needs to go.”
And Smirnova said the ramping up of investment demand is happening while the physical supplies are as thin and as dislocated as they’ve been in many years.
“On the ETF side, from January until now we've had over a hundred million ounces go into the Western ETFs, at least what's tracked on Bloomberg,” she said. “Again, that's a big amount of silver.”
Going forward, Smirnova said silver’s supply dynamics – and its future price action – depend in large part on whether China is able to import silver to fulfill their industrial needs.
“Who’s the marginal seller at this point?” she asked. “Is it still London, or is it going to start moving from the COMEX now? And how much is available? Or are the investors going to empty the Swiss vaults all of a sudden?”
For all these reasons – and even at these all-time-high prices – Smirnova said Sprott remains bullish on silver in the medium term.
“On a technical level, and I'm quoting our market strategist Paul Wong right now, he's seeing the first stop at $60, the next stop at $63,” she said. “We do follow another technical analyst, Michael Oliver. He is predicting $100 to $200 in the next few quarters.”
“These are not my numbers, but there are people out there who thinks the cat's out of the bag, and it's been building for a long time.”
Michele Schneider, Chief Market Strategist at MarketGauge, told Kitco News that she remains very bullish on silver as the metal remains undervalued and the market continues to be driven by strong fundamental demand.
“It’s amazing that silver prices are not trading a lot higher right now,” she said. “Supply deficits have become a significant concern. Demand is only going to grow, but supply remains extremely limited.”
Schneider noted that tech companies are projected to spend $700 billion in capex as they build out the growing AI infrastructure, but that can’t happen if there isn’t enough silver.
She also views silver as a value play in the precious metals market, and said that even at recent all-time highs, it is still undervalued compared to gold. The historical average of the gold/silver ratio is between 50 and 60 points, but she noted that back in the 1970s, the ratio was trading around 20 points.
In the current environment, Schneider said she could see the ratio bottoming out at 40 points.
“Looking at the price of silver relative to the price of everything else, it is still pretty cheap,” she said. “The ratio can go a lot lower than it is right now and that means much higher silver prices.”
Avi Gilburt, veteran technical analyst and founder of ElliottWaveTrader, believes the surge in gold and silver prices is entering its final stages. In a recent interview with Kitco News, he warned that investors should begin preparing for a multi-year correction that may begin in 2026.
“I believe we are heading into the end of the cycle,” he said. “2026 probably will provide us with the end of this long-term cycle in gold and silver, and potentially kick off another multi-year bear market.”
Gilburt said silver has already hit the minimum threshold of his long-term targets, but as long as support holds, the rally still has room to run.
“I don’t think we’re done yet,” he said. “My ideal target was about $75 to $80.”
And Kitco’s Jim Wyckoff wrote in his newly-released 2026 Technical Outlook for Silver that even if the gray metal doesn’t see the same massive gains next year that it did in 2025, it could still add significantly to current prices.
“While the silver market in 2026 is forecast to remain strong, driven by soaring industrial demand and tightening supplies, it’s doubtful the new year will see the 130% price gain for silver that was seen in 2025,” he cautioned. “Still, more than a few metals analysts predicting silver prices could reach or exceed $75.00.to $100.00 an ounce in the new year.”
Turning to the technical picture, Wyckoff noted that silver still looks overall bullish on both the longer-term and shorter-term charts. “However, silver is in a very mature bull market run and it's very likely the market will at least need to pause in the coming months,” he warned. “There’s no doubt silver is in a boom cycle at present. That means a bust cycle is next. The only uncertainty of that is the timing of the beginning of the bust.”
“Looking at the magnitude of the silver boom, as seen by the monthly continuation chart for nearby silver futures, it appears the magnitude of the bust will also be large.”
Wyckoff projects silver prices will bust toward the middle of 2026. “But after the bust, whenever it comes, will come another boom,” he added. “That’s the continually proven nature of raw commodity markets.”
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