(Kitco News) - After one of the most powerful precious metals rallies in decades, gold and silver investors may be entering the most consequential phase of the cycle — one that could define returns well beyond 2026.
According to Avi Gilburt, veteran technical analyst and founder of ElliottWaveTrader, the surge in gold and silver prices since the 2015–2016 lows is approaching its final innings. While prices could still climb further in the months ahead, Gilburt warns that investors should begin preparing for a multi-year correction that may begin as early as next year.
“This is not the start of something new,” Gilburt said. “This is likely the end of a very long cycle.”
Gilburt, who accurately called the 2011 gold top within dollars and the 2015 bottom almost to the day, believes the current rally has its roots in the post-2015 reset that followed years of ETF liquidation and declining investor interest. That cycle, now nearly a decade old, appears to be approaching exhaustion.
“I believe we are heading into the end of the cycle,” he said. “2026 probably will provide us with the end of this long-term cycle in gold and silver, and potentially kick off another multi-year bear market.”
While the outlook may sound jarring for investors who view precious metals as a long-term hedge, Gilburt explained that metals move in distinct waves that are largely independent of popular macro narratives.
With gold prices trading around new support above $4,300 an ounce, Gilburt said its near-term fate hinges on a critical technical battle. He added that he is closely watching resistance at $4,383. As long as that ceiling holds, he believes gold could see another sharp pullback — potentially revisiting the $3,800 level.
Such a decline, however, would not necessarily signal the end.
“If that happens, that’s going to be a great buying opportunity,” he said. “You’re then going to have one more major rally before the cycle completes.”
If gold decisively breaks above resistance, Gilburt says prices could approach — but may still fall short of — the psychologically significant $5,000 level before peaking. Either way, he expects the final move higher to be followed by a prolonged correction that could ultimately drive gold back toward the $2,000 region over several years.
Silver, as usual, has created a more volatile story. Gilburt said silver has hit the minimum threshold of his long-term targets and, as long as support holds, the rally still has room to run.
“I don’t think we’re done yet,” he said. “My ideal target was about $75 to $80.”
Whether silver reaches that zone will depend heavily on how the market behaves into year-end. A controlled pullback toward the $43–$47 range could provide the technical structure needed for a final blow-off rally.
“If we get to $75 to $80,” Gilburt said, “that could represent the final blow-off top.”
Such parabolic behavior would mirror silver’s 2010–2011 fractal pattern — a comparison that prompted Gilburt to turn bullish earlier this year when the current rally began accelerating.
Gilburt’s bear-market outlook for gold and silver is a significant contrarian view, as many analysts are looking for both metals to maintain long-term uptrends through 2026, supported by strong fundamentals. However, Gilburt has been quick to dismiss the role of fundamentals.
“Fundamentals really do not matter,” he said. “They are usually coincidental factors.”
He points to the post-2011 period as proof. Despite strong supply-demand arguments and ongoing monetary easing, gold prices fell for years after peaking. Even gold’s reputation as a crisis hedge comes with caveats.
“What happened to gold during 2008?” Gilburt asked. “It lost over 30% of its value while the stock market was crashing.”
Gold, he argues, has its own cycle, and investors who ignore that reality risk being caught on the wrong side of the trade.
Beyond metals, Gilburt sees broader risks forming across financial markets. He believes the long-term bond market has already topped and expects significantly higher yields later this decade — potentially accompanied by a major equity market crash.
“We could see rising yields with deflationary asset prices,” he said, pointing to sovereign debt crises as a possible catalyst.
As a result, Gilburt has raised more cash than at any point in his career, favoring short-term Treasuries while avoiding long-dated bonds altogether. He also issued a stark warning about banking risk, noting that modern money creation — largely credit-based — can just as easily be destroyed during a contraction.
“People believe money has to go somewhere,” he said. “That’s not true in a deflationary period.”
Gilburt added that he expects this is the only fundamental element that will impact gold and silver. He pointed out that gold and silver do well in debasement trades as investors look to protect their wealth and purchasing power.
“ What we're going to see during a deflationary period, [is] money that was created quickly as credit expanded will just as quickly be destroyed,” he said.
For precious metals investors, the message is not to abandon gold and silver, but to understand where they stand in the cycle. The coming months could offer one last opportunity to participate in the upside, particularly in silver. By 2026, however, the risk-reward balance may look very different.
“This information gives people time to protect themselves,” Gilburt said. “Narratives can really hurt an investment account.”
If history is any guide, the most dangerous moment for metals investors may come when confidence is highest — just before the cycle turns. And if Gilburt is right, 2026 may be the year that forces a painful reset.
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