(Kitco News) - After a historic run that pushed gold and silver prices to multiple record highs in the final days of 2025, investors are asking the unavoidable question: How long can this momentum last — or is something more fundamental underway?
According to veteran precious metals executive Robert Gottlieb, the answer lies not in short-term price targets or speculative squeezes, but in a structural shift that is redefining the role of gold and silver in global portfolios.
“This is not 1980. This is not Reddit. This is not a corner,” Gottlieb said in an interview with Kitco News. “This is people waking up to hard assets as a necessity.”
The former managing director of the precious metals desks at JPMorgan and HSBC said that both precious metals have experienced defining moments that have transformed the market.
He explained that the yellow metal’s defining moment came in 2022, after the U.S. government and its allies weaponized the U.S. dollar against Russia following its invasion of Ukraine.
As a result, emerging-market central banks have flooded into gold to diversify away from the U.S. dollar.
Crucially, Gottlieb emphasized that price has not been the determining factor for these buyers.
“When central banks decide to buy gold, it’s not based on price,” he explained. “It’s based on policy — what’s happening internally and externally in their country.”
Gottlieb added that this policy shift appears durable, as many central banks’ gold reserves are still relatively low.
He pointed out that this pillar of support is extremely important for investors. Central bank demand creates a persistent bid — one that underpins prices even as speculative flows ebb and flow, he said.
Meanwhile, silver’s defining moment has emerged only this year — in fact, only since the summer. Gottlieb said investors are just beginning to realize how little silver is readily available in the global marketplace.
Over the past five years, robust industrial demand has depleted above-ground silver stockpiles to critical levels. With growing investment demand, silver supply chains are stretched to extremes, and there is not enough silver in the right locations and in the right form to meet demand.
Gottlieb noted that there is currently no easy fix to the liquidity problem in the silver market. He pointed out that 12-month lease rates remain extremely elevated.
“ This is not short-term tightness,” he said. “We are seeing long-term backwardation, so to me there is still structural tightness.”
As central banks have created long-term support for gold, Gottlieb said he expects robust industrial demand to play the same role for silver.
However, while Gottlieb is bullish on both gold and silver, he warned investors that they should temper their expectations.
Why 2026 Won’t Look Like 2025 — and Why That’s Healthy
If 2025 was defined by explosive momentum, Gottlieb cautioned that 2026 will likely look very different.
“We’re not going to see another 60% or 70% year,” he said. “But that doesn’t mean the bull market is over.”
Looking to the new year, Gottlieb said he is expecting moderate gains built on structural support, not mania. Gold advancing 10–15% from already elevated levels would still translate into meaningful absolute returns, especially for institutional portfolios reallocating toward hard assets.
Silver, meanwhile, remains the more volatile — and potentially more rewarding — metal.
“The sell-offs will be bigger. The corrections will be more painful. But the long-term story is still intact,” he said.
For investors eyeing the grey metal in 2026, the message is clear: volatility is not a warning sign — it’s part of the asset class.
Silver’s sharp pullbacks, sometimes triggered by algorithmic trading or momentum-driven futures selling, can be violent. But Gottlieb views these episodes as resets rather than reversals, especially when physical markets remain tight.
“Corrections are healthy,” he said. “What matters is whether support forms — and so far, it has.”
A Structural Re-Rating, Not a Bubble
Although gold and silver are expected to experience some volatility in 2026, Gottlieb said both remain well supported, as precious metals are no longer viewed as fringe hedges or contrarian trades.
Throughout 2025, analysts and institutions began seriously questioning the traditional 60/40 portfolio model. Over the past year, many analysts have recognized the value of a more diversified portfolio, with potentially up to 20% allocated to hard assets.
“This was the structural change in 2025,” Gottlieb said. “In 2026, people don’t need to discover gold and silver — they already believe in them.”
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