(Kitco News) - Gold prices are modestly higher in early U.S. trading Friday, while silver is posting solid losses and hit a seven-week low overnight. Weak long liquidation in the futures markets is featured in silver again today. A rally in the U.S. dollar index the past couple weeks has dented bullish enthusiasm in gold and silver. Solid rebounds in the U.S. stock indexes overnight are also pulling some buying interest away from the safe-haven metals. April gold was last up $11.20 at $4,900.90. March silver prices were down $3.22 at $73.47.
Iran, U.S. begin negotiations today. Iran and the U.S. are set to start negotiations today to de-escalate tensions that have threatened to spiral into war, with Tehran saying the talks will be the first stage of a longer diplomatic process, Bloomberg reports. The meeting in Oman’s capital of Muscat will focus on broad topics rather than finer details and are expected to clarify a road map for further talks, the Islamic Republic News Agency reported early Friday. The U.S. delegation is expected to be led by Steve Witkoff, a special envoy for President Trump, and Iran’s by Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. Iran’s main priorities include “assessing the other side’s goodwill and seriousness,” IRNA said. “The road map for negotiations appears set to become clearer once this round concludes.” Trump has threatened Tehran with military strikes if it doesn’t agree to a deal, with Iran warning that any attack would trigger a regional war engulfing Israel and the U.S. The U.S. today urged any of its citizens in Iran to leave or stockpile food and water if they’re unable to do so. It’s unclear how many Americans are still in Iran, but the number is probably small, Bloomberg said.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index near steady, with crude oil slightly lower and trading around $63.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently 4.2 percent.
Note: The gold market operates through two primary pricing mechanisms. The first is the spot market, which quotes prices for on-the-spot purchase and immediate delivery. The second is the futures market, which sets prices for delivery at a future date. Due to year-end positioning market liquidity, the December gold futures contract is currently the most actively traded on the CME.
Technically, April gold futures price action last week formed a big and bearish “key reversal” down on the daily bar chart, which is one chart clue that a market top is in place. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $5,250.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at this week’s low of $4,423.20. First resistance is seen at $5,000.00 and then at Thursday’s high of $5,045.00. First support is seen at $4,800.00 and then at the overnight low of $4,670.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.
March silver futures see a bearish pennant pattern playing out on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at this week’s high of $92.015. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $60.00. First resistance is seen at $75.00 and then at $77.50. Next support is seen at $70.00 and then at $65.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0.
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