Early 2026 volatility won’t derail gold’s bull market, miners’ record cash flow will support reratings – Van Eck’s Casanova

Kitco Media
By Ernest Hoffman
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Early 2026 volatility won’t derail gold’s bull market, miners’ record cash flow will support reratings – Van Eck’s Casanova teaser image

(Kitco News) – Gold price swings in January highlighted volatility, not weakness, while strong investment demand, central bank buying and improving miner fundamentals continue to support a sustainable long-term bull market in 2026 and beyond, according to Imaru Casanova, Portfolio Manager, Gold and Precious Metals at Van Eck.

In a note published Tuesday, Casanova wrote that gold has had a phenomenal – but very volatile – start to the year.

“Rising geopolitical tensions around the world, in particular, developments involving Venezuela, Iran and Greenland, combined with persistent U.S. tariff and sanctions threats, pushed gold above $5,000 per ounce on January 26,” she noted. “Breaking through that psychological level appeared to unleash a wave of speculative buying. By January 29, gold was trading at an intraday high of $5,595 per ounce, nearly $1,300 higher than at the end of 2025.”

Casanova said this price action made a pullback almost inevitable, and markets latched onto the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair on January 30 as the catalyst, with gold prices collapsing 9% on the day.

“Warsh was initially seen as a more hawkish choice, supportive of the U.S. dollar and generally negative for gold, signaling potentially less accommodative monetary policy ahead,” she wrote. “That said, after the initial reaction, the implied probability of Fed rate cuts ticked up slightly, possibly reflecting Warsh’s comments suggesting alignment with President Trump’s preference for lower rates. Gold closed January 30 at $4,894.23 per ounce, ending the month up $574.86, or 13.31%.”

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But despite the dramatic selloff, Casanova insisted that gold’s key price drivers remain in place.

“January’s price action is a reminder of both gold’s uncontested role as a safe haven and U.S. dollar alternative, and the increased volatility that comes with trading at record levels,” she said. “In our view, these sharp swings should not distract or deter gold investors. Gold's longer-term outlook remains supported by the same forces that drove it in 2025: central banks and investors seeking protection, diversification and de-dollarization in their reserves and portfolios.”

“Rising geopolitical risks and trade tensions, inflation concerns, a potentially weaker dollar and the risk of a meaningful correction in stretched equity markets should all continue to support gold in 2026,” she added. “While new highs are likely to be followed by pullbacks and periods of range-bound trading, we believe this gold bull market still has several years to run.”

Turning to gold stocks, Casanova said the sector is still playing catch-up to the metal itself.

“Gold equity markets had little time to absorb the sharp rise in gold prices during the first month of 2026,” she said. “The MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index delivered a strong gain of 10.91% over the month but still underperformed the metal itself. This dynamic highlights a feature of the sector over the past decade: gold mining equities have been consistently valued using gold price assumptions that lag the spot price.”

“In recent years, as markets begin to gain confidence that higher gold prices are sustainable and adjust valuation assumptions accordingly, the gold price itself often continues to move higher, leaving equities in a persistent catch-up mode,” Casanova noted. “This year, however, we are seeing a notable shift. Equity and commodity analysts are increasingly publishing gold price forecasts that not only point to higher prices in 2026 but also assume sustained or elevated price levels through 2028–2029. This should translate into stronger consensus expectations for valuations, earnings and cash flows across the sector and help support a long-overdue re-rating of gold mining equities.”

Looking ahead, Casanova said that most gold mining companies will report their Q4 and full-year 2025 results, including 2026 guidance, this month.

“While outcomes will likely vary based on company-specific factors, particularly with respect to cost increases expected in 2026, we expect a clear and consistent message to emerge,” she said. “Even at lower gold prices, gold miners are generating record cash flows with robust margins, enabling increased shareholder returns and accelerating investment in the sector’s long-term growth pipeline.”

Kitco Media

Ernest Hoffman

Ernest Hoffman is a Crypto and Market Reporter for Kitco News. He has over 15 years of experience as a writer, editor, broadcaster and producer for media, educational and cultural organizations. Ernest began working in market news in 2007, establishing the broadcast division of CEP News in Montreal, Canada, where he developed the fastest web-based audio news service in the world and produced economic news videos in partnership with MSN and the TMX. He has a Bachelor's degree Specialization in Journalism from Concordia University. You can reach Ernest at 1-514-670-1339.

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