(Kitco News) - Gold and silver prices are lower in early U.S. trading Friday, just ahead of an important U.S. inflation report. Traders of the two precious metals have been extra concerned about rising inflation due to the war in the Middle East driving up energy costs. April gold was last down $26.80 at $5,099.00. May silver prices were down $1.732 at $83.395.
Key U.S. inflation report out this morning. Today will be a busy day for U.S. economic data, highlighted by a key inflation report that the Federal Reserve monitors closely: personal income and outlays for January and the associated personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation readings. The PCE price index is seen coming in at up 0.3% in January from December, and up 2.9%, year-on-year. The “core” PCE index (excluding food and energy) is seen coming in up 0.4%, month-on-month, and up 3.1%, year-on-year. Also due out this morning is the second estimate for fourth-quarter 2025 GDP, durable goods orders for January and the jobs and labor turnover (JOLTS) survey.
Latest on the war in Iran.
--Trump warns Iran to watch what happens as war hits two-week mark
--Four U.S. soldiers killed in refueling plane crash, U.S. command says
--Iran’s missile launcher arsenal holds steady despite strikes
--Russian intelligence is supporting Iran's retaliation against the U.S., Israel, and Gulf allies
--Israel’s Netanyahu says no guarantee of Iran regime change after war
-- Israel expands war on Hezbollah in Lebanon as crisis grows
-- $5 heating oil arrives in U.S. in latest Iran war fuel pain point
--U.S. Treasury gives green light for sale of more Russian oil already at sea
-- US waiver frees up 19 million barrels of Russia Oil for purchase
--Reports say Iran is laying mines in Persian Gulf faster than U.S. can eliminate them
-- Iran’s new leadership is betting on endurance
Critical U.S., China trade meeting late this weekend. The framework for President Trump’s summit meeting with China’s President Xi Jinping is set to be mapped out this weekend as negotiators meet to discuss thorny issues such as tariffs, fentanyl and Taiwan. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and China’s Vice Premier He Lifeng will convene in Paris on Sunday and Monday “to map out deliverables for the leaders’ summit slated for March 31 to April 2 in Beijing. Other issues include the potential for Chinese investment in the U.S. and exports of advanced semiconductors, such as those manufactured by Nvidia Corp,” Bloomberg reported. Beijing separately said Vice Premier He would lead a delegation to France from March 14 to 17 to hold economic and trade dialogue with U.S. counterparts, said the report. “The outcome of the Paris negotiations will give an indication of the scale of deal making that can be achieved when Trump and Xi meet. Already, some Chinese officials have privately voiced concerns that the last-minute planning may limit deliverables,” said Bloomberg.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index higher, with Nymex crude oil prices weaker and trading around $94.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently 4.275 percent.
Note: The gold market operates through two primary pricing mechanisms. The first is the spot market, which quotes prices for on-the-spot purchase and immediate delivery. The second is the futures market, which sets prices for delivery at a future date. Due to year-end positioning market liquidity, the December gold futures contract is currently the most actively traded on the CME.
Technically, April gold futures bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at last week’s high of $5,434.10. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $5,000.00. First resistance is seen at the overnight high of $5,132.40 and then at $5,200.00. First support is seen at Thursday’s low of $5,058.20 and then at this week’s low of $5,021.20. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.
May silver futures bulls’ next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $90.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $72.405. First resistance is seen at the overnight high of $85.62 and then at $87.50. Next support is seen at the overnight low of $81.515 and then at this week’s low of $79.64. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.
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