(Kitco News) - Gold and silver prices are sharply down but well up from their overnight lows that saw gold hit a four-month low and silver a 3.5-month low. News from President Trump that the Iran war may be de-escalating roiled the marketplace with big price gyrations in many markets, including gold and silver. Still, the metals markets are seeing underlying selling pressure amid global inflation worries and a strong U.S. dollar. April gold was last down $205.40 at $4,369.10. May silver prices were down $2.009 at $67.63.
Latest on the war in Iran…
--President Trump orders the Pentagon to postpone military strikes against Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure for a five-day period, according to a Truth Social post. U.S. and Iran have had very good and productive conversations over the past two days, he said.
--However, Iran news agency reportedly denies Trump’s progress claims
--Crude oil prices drop by over 10% on apparent de-escalation of U.S. military action, but backs down from daily highs
--Israel hits Tehran again, while Iran carries out fresh strikes across Gulf
--More than 40 energy assets across Middle East damaged since the conflict began, IEA says
-- Global stock markets rebound, bond prices rally on Trump social media post. Prices volatile.
--Modi seeks to calm India as Iran war causes acute gas shortage
Here’s how Goldman sees crude oil prices playing out this year… Goldman Sachs has raised its crude oil price forecasts for 2026 due to the prolonged disruption of flows through the Strait of Hormuz, which it described as the largest-ever supply shock for the global crude market. The firm expects Brent crude oil prices to average $85.00 a barrel in 2026 and West Texas Intermediate to average $79.00 a barrel, up from earlier forecasts of $77.00 and $72.00, respectively. Goldman said the revisions are based on an assumption that oil flows through Hormuz would remain at only 5% of normal levels for six weeks, followed by a one-month recovery, resulting in cumulative losses of just over 800 million barrels.
U.S. dollar remains strong as American economy better insulated from war… The U.S. dollar advanced today and traders are betting on further appreciation for the greenback as the war in the Middle East entered its fourth week and the U.S. exchanged threats with Iran. “Surging energy prices support the oil-exporting U.S. economy and investors are rushing to safe-haven assets. The greenback is just shy of a fresh year-to-date high and options traders see more gains, with one-month sentiment the most bullish since 2022,” said a Bloomberg report. The currency climbed versus its Group-of-10 peers after President Trump gave Iran an ultimatum to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or have its power plants bombed. Tehran countered that it would close the Strait of Hormuz “completely,” and higher oil prices supported the greenback once again. “In real terms, the U.S. economy is still looking better insulated against the energy shock, which we expect to support the dollar over coming weeks,” said Jens Naervig Pedersen, a senior analyst at Danske Bank and as reported by Bloomberg. Hedge funds that bought the dollar on Friday are coming back now for more, according to currency traders familiar with the transactions.
The other key outside market today sees the U.S. dollar index slightly lower. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently around 4.4 percent.
Note: The gold market operates through two primary pricing mechanisms. The first is the spot market, which quotes prices for on-the-spot purchase and immediate delivery. The second is the futures market, which sets prices for delivery at a future date. Due to year-end positioning market liquidity, the December gold futures contract is currently the most actively traded on the CME.
Technically, April gold futures bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $4,750.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at today’s low of $4,100.00. First resistance is seen at $4,500.00 and then at the overnight high of $4,537.10. First support is seen at $4,300.00 and then at $4,250.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5.
May silver futures are bulls see their next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $80.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $60.00. First resistance is seen at the overnight high of $69.72 and then at $70.00. Next support is seen at $65.00 and then at the overnight low of $61.21. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5.
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