(Kitco News) - Gold and silver prices are posting sharp losses in early U.S. trading today, pressured by rising U.S. Treasury yields and a firmer U.S. dollar index. Metals traders have been focusing more on problematic inflation prospects on this day. April gold was last down $108.70 at $4,443.10. May silver prices were down $4.376 at $68.25.
Latest on the war in Iran…
--White House insists peace talks ongoing; Tehran rejects U.S. overtures
-- U.S. preparing options for “final blow” in Iran, may include ground forces, major bombing
--U.S. troop movements fan fears of a risky ground attack on Iran
--The Israel Defense Forces completes a wave of strikes in Isfahan in Iran
--Iran lawmakers working on a draft bill to impose safe passage toll for Strait of Hormuz
--U.S. has 15-point peace proposal that Pakistan delivered to Iran
-- Vice President JD Vance may travel to Pakistan for Iran talks this weekend, CNN reports
--Trump social media post, just out: “The Iranian negotiators are very different and ‘strange.’ They are ‘begging’ us to make a deal, which they should be doing since they have been militarily obliterated, with zero chance of a comeback, and yet they publicly state that they are only ‘looking at our proposal.’ WRONG!!! They better get serious soon, before it is too late, because once that happens, there is NO TURNING BACK, and it won’t be pretty! President DJT”
New York Fed: U.S. credit market turns more dysfunctional this month… A New York Federal Reserve index on Wednesday signaled that the U.S. corporate bond market saw more dislocations in March, with the high-grade bond market more bruised than its high-yield counterpart. The Corporate Bond Market Distress Index, which the Federal Reserve of New York launched in 2022 to assess brewing risks in the U.S. credit market, jumped earlier this month to the highest level since May of 2025. The investment-grade component of the index last week surged to the highest since December 2023, Bloomberg reported. The index, based on a 0 to 1 scale, with 1 showing the highest stress, rose to 0.16 from 0.09 in late February. The high-grade index rose to 0.28 from 0.09. The investment-grade sub-index ended the period around the historical 60th percentile - meaning conditions are more stressed than usual. “Credit market functioning deteriorated over the past month,” the New York Fed said on Wednesday. “The investment-grade CMDI sector increased more than its high-yield counterpart.” The index measures the functioning of the corporate bond market by aggregating changes in indicators including the pricing of newly issued bonds and measures of secondary market liquidity, said Bloomberg.
Fed Governor Miran raises his interest rate projection… Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran said he moved up his projection for where U.S. interest rates should end the year by half a percentage point in response to disappointing inflation data since officials last issued forecasts in December. “I boosted my policy rate by half a percent, not due to oil and Iran, but due to the inflation data that we received,” Miran said Wednesday during an event in New York, referring to the economic projections policymakers published after their policy meeting last week. “That puts my projection at about neutral,” he said and as reported by Bloomberg. Miran voted against the Fed’s March 18 decision to leave rates steady, preferring a quarter-point cut. Miran said a percentage point of rate cuts this year is still appropriate in order to bring rates to levels that would be neutral for the economy.
Trump-Xi to meet in China in Mid-May… President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping will hold their summit meeting in Beijing on May 14-15, following a delay due to the war with Iran. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt announced at midday Wednesday that Xi would visit Washington at a date later this year, and said the administration has "always estimated approximately four-to-six weeks" for the war in Iran to be completed. “The rescheduled meeting will pose a test of how comfortable Trump and Xi are with the status quo on trade, U.S. support for Taiwan, and the fallout from the U.S. strikes on Iran that spurred a spike in oil prices,” said Bloomberg. “There was a discussion about the rescheduling of the meeting between the President and President Xi. President Xi understood that it’s very important for the President to be here throughout these combat operations right now. He understood, obviously the request to postpone and accepted it, which is why we have new dates on the books,” Leavitt said. China and the U.S. remained in communication about Trump’s visit, China’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian said at a regular briefing in Beijing.
The key outside markets see Nymex WTI crude oil prices higher and trading around $93.00 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is slightly up early today. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently 4.37 percent.
Note: The gold market operates through two primary pricing mechanisms. The first is the spot market, which quotes prices for on-the-spot purchase and immediate delivery. The second is the futures market, which sets prices for delivery at a future date. Due to year-end positioning market liquidity, the December gold futures contract is currently the most actively traded on the CME.
Technically, April gold futures bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $4,750.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at this week’s low of $4,100.00. First resistance is seen at $4,500.00 and then at the overnight high of $4,541.60. First support is seen at $4,400.00 and then at $4,350.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0.
May silver futures bulls see their next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $80.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $60.00. First resistance is seen at $70.00 and then at the overnight high of $72.385. Next support is seen at $67.50 and then at $65.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0.
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