(Kitco News) - The gold market continues to improve as prices hold above $4,500 an ounce; however, one market strategist warns investors that January’s peak could represent a generational high.
In his April metals outlook, Mike McGlone, Senior Market Analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, said that gold faces a difficult hurdle created by its overextended speculative run at the start of the year.
“At the end of February, the metal stretched to its highest-ever level versus the Bloomberg Commodity Spot Index and its greatest premium to its 60-month moving average since 1980,” he said. “Our takeaway is that gold's parabolic 2025 rally—the best year since 1979—was prescient of the Iran war, and the 2026 high may mirror the 1980s. The peak that year, at about $850 an ounce, held until 2008.”
McGlone said that gold continues to struggle as speculative momentum has transformed the yellow metal from a safe-haven asset into a risk asset. He pointed out that the precious metal’s 180-day volatility is more than twice that of the S&P 500 and is at its highest quarterly level since 2006.
McGlone’s cautious stance on gold comes as the precious metal looks to end the month with its worst loss since the 1980s. Spot gold last traded at $4,612.70 an ounce, down 12.5% on the month.
Along with gold, McGlone expects that silver’s rally to $120 an ounce in January could represent a historic peak. He noted that the price ratio of silver versus oil and copper reached historic highs during the first quarter.
Although McGlone is not very optimistic on precious metals, he also noted that the ongoing war with Iran continues to create significant uncertainty. He said that the price direction will depend on how the conflict unfolds.
“A protracted conflict or ceasefire could sustain gold above $5,000 an ounce, but signs of Iran's offensive capitulation and a secure Strait may pressure reversion toward $4,000,” he said.
