(Kitco News) - Gold and silver prices are higher again in early U.S. trading today, as traders and investors have stepped up their safe-haven buying early this week, amid the war in the Middle East that so far shows no sign of letting up. Falling world government bond prices and higher crude oil prices are also bullish for the two precious metals. June gold was last up $53.70 at $4,610.50. May silver prices were up $2.791 at $73.37.
Today is also the last trading day of the month and of the quarter, which makes it an extra important trading day from a technical analysis perspective.
Latest on the war in Iran…
--Trump mulls exiting war without reopening Strait of Hormuz: WSJ
--Iran hits a fully laden Kuwaiti oil tanker near Dubai
--Earlier, Trump renewed threats against Iranian infrastructure
--Iran fired three missile salvos at Israel on Tuesday morning
--Spain shuts its air space to U.S. flights involved in Iran offensive
--U.S. may re-examine NATO’s merit after Iran war snub, Rubio says
President Trump has told his aides he’s willing to end the U.S. military campaign against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed, administration officials said and as reported by The Wall Street Journal--likely extending Tehran’s firm grip on the waterway and leaving a complex operation to reopen it for a later date. “In recent days, Trump and his aides assessed that a mission to pry open the chokepoint would push the conflict beyond his timeline of four to six weeks. He decided that the U.S. should achieve its main goals of hobbling Iran’s navy and its missile stocks and wind down current hostilities while pressuring Tehran diplomatically to resume the free flow of trade. If that fails, Washington would press allies in Europe and the Gulf to take the lead on reopening the strait, the officials said,” and as reported by the Journal.
Average U.S. gasoline price pushes above $4.00 a gallon… U.S. gasoline prices at the pump jumped past an average of $4 a gallon for the first time since 2022 today as the Iran war has pushed fuel prices to soar worldwide. The Associated Press said, “According to motor club AAA, the national average for a gallon of regular gasoline is now $4.02 — over a dollar more than before the war began. The last time U.S. drivers were collectively paying this much at the pump was nearly four years ago, following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The price is a national average, meaning drivers in some states have been paying well over $4 a gallon for a while now. Prices vary from state to state due to factors ranging from nearby supply to differing tax rates.”
Euro zone area saw its steepest jump in inflation since 2022 as the Iran war pushed energy costs sharply higher, backing expectations that the European Central Bank will have to raise interest rates. Consumer prices rose 2.5% from a year ago in March – up from 1.9% the previous month and the highest since January 2025. The reading is just below the 2.6% median estimate in a Bloomberg survey. Core inflation, which excludes volatile items like food and energy, unexpectedly slowed to 2.3% annually, while the closely watched services gauge also eased, Eurostat said Tuesday.
China sees improved economic numbers… China’s official NBS Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.4 in March 2026 from 49.0 in February and exceeded expectations of 50.1, according to TradingEconomics.com. This marked the strongest reading since March of last year and a rebound after two months of contraction, supported by stronger government spending early in the year and resilient exports driven by AI-related global demand. Output growth accelerated (51.4 vs 49.6 in February), while new orders rebounded sharply (51.6 vs 48.6). External demand also strengthened, with new export orders rising (49.1 vs 45.0). Buying activity increased (50.9 vs 48.2), while employment remained in contraction (48.6 vs 48.0), and supplier delivery times stayed below the threshold (49.5 vs 49.1). Meanwhile, prices surged, with both input costs (63.9 vs 54.8) and output prices (55.4 vs 50.6) hitting their highest levels in four years, driven by soaring crude prices and non-ferrous metals. Business confidence eased slightly (53.4 vs 53.2) but remained optimistic. source: National Bureau of Statistics of China
The key outside markets see Nymex WTI crude oil prices up and trading around $104.50 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is slightly up early today. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently 4.3 percent.
Note: The gold market operates through two primary pricing mechanisms. The first is the spot market, which quotes prices for on-the-spot purchase and immediate delivery. The second is the futures market, which sets prices for delivery at a future date. Due to year-end positioning market liquidity, the December gold futures contract is currently the most actively traded on the CME.
Technically, April gold futures bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $4,750.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at the March low of $4,100.00. First resistance is seen at the overnight high of $4,649.50 and then at $4,700.00. First support is seen at $4,500.00 and then at this week’s low of $4,444.70. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0.
May silver futures bulls see their next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $80.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at the March low of $61.21. First resistance is seen at $74.80 and then at $75.00. Next support is seen at $70.00 and then at this week’s low of $67.70. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0.
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