(Kitco NewsWire) - Spot gold and silver prices are higher late Thursday, as weaker U.S. growth data and a softer dollar offset inflation pressure tied to the Strait of Hormuz and U.S.-Iran headlines. At the time of writing, spot gold was trading near $4,495.00 an ounce, up 0.89% on the session, while spot silver was trading at $75.530, up 1.35%.
U.S. first-quarter GDP was revised down to a 1.6% annualized growth rate from the earlier 2.0% estimate, while April PCE inflation rose 0.4% month-on-month and 3.8% year-on-year. Core PCE rose 0.2% on the month and 3.3% from a year earlier. The softer growth revision and cooler core monthly reading helped gold rebound from its session low, even as the annual inflation rate remained well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.
The data mix left traders pricing a narrower path for easier policy, with the 10-year Treasury yield near 4.48% and the dollar index off 0.1% near 99.16 in the immediate data reaction.
The Strait of Hormuz remains the market’s main geopolitical pressure point: a narrow Gulf chokepoint where tanker traffic, crude exports and inflation expectations are being repriced against the possibility of a broader U.S.-Iran settlement. A tentative 60-day framework under discussion would extend the ceasefire, reopen shipping lanes without tolls and restart nuclear talks, but approval is not final and skirmishes around the waterway in the past 48 hours kept risk premium in oil, gold and rates.
The perceived market impact was two-sided: lower oil on deal hopes reduced some inflation fear and supported gold through lower yields and a softer dollar, while any fresh military exchange would likely lift crude, inflation expectations and the dollar, a mix that has recently weighed on non-yielding metals.
The key outside markets see Nymex WTI crude oil prices modestly firmer and settling around $88.90 a barrel, while Brent crude was near $92.72. The U.S. dollar index is lower. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is trading near the 4.5% area.
U.S. equities were mixed around the data, with early pressure in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq giving way to a more constructive tone as traders focused on weaker growth and less aggressive monthly core inflation. Gold futures rose 1.14% to $4,499.30, their largest one-day gain since May 6, while silver rose 1.36% to $75.645.
Technically, spot gold bulls' next upside price objective is to push prices back above the $4,589.00 to $4,631.00 resistance zone, with a sustained move targeting $4,774.00 and then $4,804.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is a break below $4,366.00, with deeper downside targets at $4,099.12 and then $4,000.00. First resistance is seen at $4,589.00 and then at $4,631.00. First support is seen at $4,401.00 and then at $4,366.00.
Spot silver bulls' next upside price objective is to drive prices back above the $76.14 to $78.00 area, with a move above that zone targeting $79.00 and then $85.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is a break below $74.97, with deeper downside targets at $72.78 and then $71.79. First resistance is seen at $76.14 and then at $78.00. Next support is seen at $74.97 and then at $72.78.
