For those that do not know my work, let me give you a little background about me. My name is Avi Gilburt and I have been publicly providing market analysis for the last 13 years. And, one of my first market prognostications was presented in the metals market.
Back in August of 2011, gold was in the midst of a parabolic rally. And, at the time, the only argument between all the metals analysts was how far beyond $2,000 is gold going to rally. Yet, my analysis told me something very different:
"Again, since we are most probably in the final stages of this parabolic fifth wave "blow-off-top," I would seriously consider anything approaching the $1,915 level to be a potential target for a top at this time." - Avi Gilburt, August 22, 2011
As we all know now, gold topped within $6 of my target and began a multi-year correction. In fact, even before gold topped, I was questioned in the comments section to my gold articles as to what my target was for the downside I expected in gold. My answer was the $700-$1000 region. Now, consider that gold was rallying parabolically at the time and I was not only claiming it was about to stop dead in its tracks, I was also claiming it would drop down to the $1000 region. Needless to say, no one really took me seriously, as this was my first public presentation of my analysis in gold.
Again, as we now know, not only did gold top within $6 of my target at the time (when everyone else was certain it would move through $2,000), but gold then proceeded to drop down to the $1050 region over the coming 4 years.
So, in late 2015, I was seeing signs that gold was bottoming, and outlined to my clients that we may come up a bit shy of the $1,000 target. And, on December 30, 2015, I penned the following message to those willing to listen:
"As we move into 2016, I believe there is a greater than 80% probability that we finally see a long term bottom formed in the metals and miners and the long term bull market resumes. Those that followed our advice in 2011, and moved out of this market for the correction we expected, are now moving back into this market as we approach the long term bottom. In 2011, before gold even topped, we set our ideal target for this correction in the $700-$1,000 region in gold. We are now reaching our ideal target region, and the pattern we have developed over the last 4 years is just about complete. . . For those interested in my advice, I would highly suggest you start moving back into this market with your long term money . . ."
And, those that have followed my work in metals through the years can attest to our accuracy. Those of you that recognize Doug Eberhardt as another public author/analyst on metals may not know that he is also a gold dealer and runs BuyGoldandSilverSafely.com. As he was astounded by the accuracy of our analysis, Doug made these public pronouncements about our accuracy in the metals world, based upon our Elliott Wave analysis:
"I can attest to your accuracy on actually buying both gold and silver from us as close to the bottom as one could. With gold you called it to the letter and your limit order which was placed well in advance executed perfectly. The silver limit orders were within a tight range of the lows as well . . . Your timing on buying the dips is uncanny Avi! People should be aware of this."
"Avi has the magic touch. Listen to him . . . And I want to explain to you all what Avi did for you. He got most of you to buy the metals before the premiums shot up and before everyone ran out of product. This is the 2nd time he has done this and kudos to him for doing that for you."
Last year, I attempted to get readers focused on the metals, as I wrote several public articles on the metals during the last half of 2023 outlining my bullish expectations for the metals over the following year+. In fact, back in October of 2023, this is what my GLD chart was projecting:
And, then in February of 2024, this is what we were showing:
As you can see, we have rallied to our target for wave iii, and have consolidated in wave iv, as expected over half a year ago.
In my prior articles, I also outlined last year my initial target of 2428 for gold (which we did just exceed before this consolidation). And, now, I am expecting that we will likely move up to the 2700 region in gold for the next rally I expect to begin over the coming weeks.
However, I see much greater potential in silver at this time. Whereas gold has already seen its wave iii rally, silver has not. Therefore, I am expecting a major catch-up move in silver during 2024, which can even take us beyond the $40 mark in quite a rapid move.
Therefore, my main point is that I am now tracking a pattern which suggests that this pullback/consolidation can complete in the near term, and set us up for the next phase of the rally I expect in the metals market. However, in the next phase, I am expecting silver to outperform gold.
Avi Gilburt is a widely followed Elliott Wave technical analyst and author of ElliottWaveTrader.net (www.elliottwavetrader.net), a live Trading Room featuring his intraday market analysis (including emini S&P 500, metals, oil, USD & VXX), interactive member-analyst forum, and detailed library of Elliott Wave education.
