In a tumultuous day of trading, gold futures experienced a significant downturn, mirroring the broader market sell-off that swept across various asset classes. The most active December contract for gold plummeted nearly $100 in volatile trading, opening at $2,490.30 and reaching an intraday high of $2,500.80 before succumbing to intense selling pressure.
The precious metal's decline was part of a wider market sell-off, with U.S. equities suffering substantial losses. The NASDAQ Composite led the downturn, shedding 3.43%, while the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 3% and 2.6%, respectively. This sell-off, described as one of the worst since 2022, was fueled by growing fears of an impending U.S. recession.
Recent economic data reignited recession concerns. Last week's employment report revealed a significant weakening in the labor market, with the unemployment rate jumping to 4.3%, its highest level since October 2021. This unexpected surge triggered the "Sahm Rule," a recession indicator developed by former Fed economist Claudia Sahm. The rule suggests that a recession may be underway when the three-month moving average of unemployment rises by half a percentage point from its lowest point in the past year.
Sahm herself commented on Bloomberg Television that while the U.S. might not be in a recession yet, the situation is precariously close. This assessment has further unsettled investors and contributed to the market-wide sell-off.
Despite the day's steep decline, gold's long-term bullish outlook remains intact. Factors such as continued central bank purchases, strong investor demand, and escalating tensions in the Middle East are expected to provide ongoing support for gold prices.
As of 5:15 PM EST, December gold futures settled at $2,452.10, representing a $34 (1.37%) decline for the day. While the intraday low reached $2,403.80, a slight recovery towards the close suggests that some investors view the dip as a buying opportunity.
While gold experienced a significant correction amidst a broad market sell-off, its fundamental drivers remain strong. As economic uncertainties persist and geopolitical tensions simmer, gold's role as a safe-haven asset is likely to reassert itself, potentially leading to a recovery in prices in the near future.
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