CPM Gold Trade Recommendation
Time Stamp
Prices as of 5:30 p.m. EDT 24 June 2026 $4,017.70 (Basis the August 2026 Comex contract).
Recommendation: Sell
Initial Target Price / Range: $3,800
Initial Timeframe: 24 June 2026 to 10 July 2026
Stop Loss: $4,125
On 11 June CPM recommended ultra short term investors stand aside amid volatile precious metals markets. Gold was $4,234.90 at the time. We suggested gold could trade between $3,800 and $4,650 over the next two weeks. Gold traded as high as $4,403 in the following week. Then it began falling. Today gold broke below the $4,100 support level and dropped as low as $3, 980.30, its lowest level since 6 November 2025. Gold staged only a weak recovery later in the day.
CPM expects the downward move in gold prices will continue in the weeks ahead, with the $3,800 technical target that so many market commentaries mention as the potential likely base in the near term.
Simply put, prices are declining because investors are selling. Some are trend following. Others see the economic and political environment as offering a respite from several seasons of unrelenting bad news. Non-traditional precious metals investors who had bought into the market from September into early 2026 continue to sell.
Why are they selling? Stock markets are doing well. Bond markets are shaky. Oil prices are falling as oil begins to flow in greater volume through the Strait of Hormuz. Warsh’s comments last week suggest higher interest rates. Economic data have been stronger than had been expected. There may be an increased potential for an extended ceasefire and end of military action in the US Iran war, although any extension of the ceasefire should be expected to be tenuous and at risk of sabotage by continued Israeli shelling and missiles into Lebanon, and U.S. and Iranian intransigence in their positions. Ukraine meanwhile is gaining an upper hand in its Russian invasion, with increased concerns about potential change of leadership in Russia. Greater Republican, public, and lower Federal court opposition to many Trump efforts also is easing investor concerns.
In other words, there is a less hostile short-term economic and political outlook for the very near term, even if the longer term outlook remains high risk. This all said, the markets could still be surprised by headlines and news that could push gold prices sharply higher once more, reversing the very short term trend.
{The stuff about a gold repricing by the US Treasury on 4 July is nonsense and may be ignored safely. It would not work. No one would buy at the higher ‘Treasury price’ but would continue with world prices. Everyone would offer to sell to the US Government at its new higher price; but the US Government would not stand to buy. It simply is just nonsense.)
CPM has one-month, three-month ranges and eight-quarter quarterly price projections with greater discussion of the factors behind CPM’s analyses provided in CPM’s monthly subscription service, the Precious Metals Advisory.
While short-term trade recommendations provide high risk – high reward opportunities for investors, it is difficult to capture the complex web of factors affecting precious metals prices and the nuanced CPM analyses of these factors that goes into our firm’s price projections. In addition to these short-term outlooks, CPM Group provides clients enhanced trade recommendations that include one and three month price projections, as part of our Retail Investor Program. Contact CPM at info@cpmgroup.com for details.
Notes:
Initial Target Prices and Timeframes are just that: Initial. If CPM does not issue a new Recommendation during or after that time it indicates that CPM maintains the posture in the most recent Trade Recommendation. Position may be closed out once target price is reached, within the noted discretion or until CPM provides new trade recommendation. CPM may have reported to have closed out of prior trade recommendation at its discretion before publicly publishing new trade recommendation due to processing time.
Discretion should be allowed at +/- 0.20% of the price at the time each TR is issued from the target.
CPM’s preferred investment strategies use physical, futures, forwards, and options.
