Gold gained $72.30 or 1.80% on Tuesday basis the most active August futures contract, the largest gain since July 2nd for the precious metal. Gold moved on hopes that a Middle East ceasefire will be forthcoming. On Monday, an Iranian official reported that Tehran had received a proposal from mediators for a 10-day ceasefire in an attempt by Washington to salvage their interim deal. This had a direct effect on rate hike expectations, increasing the odds of a rate hike this month from 16% yesterday up to 26% today. Traders are now putting a 15.8% probability for rates a full half a percent higher by the end of September’s FOMC meeting.
Traders should take this news with a grain of salt perhaps, as we have heard these kinds of hopium-laced remarks many times before. Also contradicting a calming of tensions in the Middle East, both crude oil and the US dollar are trading higher on the day.
WTI Crude Oil rose by nearly $2 or 2.32%, now at $84.39 a barrel, a 25.95% increase over the last 24 days. The US dollar index rose for its fourth consecutive session to breach the 101 level, something that outside of recent weeks hadn’t been achieved since May 2025. The US dollar is now at 101.20 after gaining 0.23% on the day.
Silver futures have shown more resilience than their sister metal during the past few days, scoring their third winning session today. Tuesday’s gains took the metal a full $2.00 higher, or 3.50%, to $59.07 in the futures markets. Silver in the spot market is finding resistance at current pricing around $58.77, which corelates with the 20-day simple moving average, but has yet to test the 20-day exponential moving average at $59.81.
A break above the 20-day EMA could signal a breakout is imminent, so a close above the $60 mark in spot silver would be worth taking noting. Spot gold’s own 20-day EMA may mean a similar outcome is plausible; currently this average lies about $10 above Tuesday’s high at $4,092. Therefore, a break in spot gold above $4,100 could be viewed as a bullish catalyst as well.
