CPM Gold Trade Recommendation
Time Stamp
Prices as of 9:55 a.m. EDT 23 July 2026 $4,068.60 (Basis the August 2026 Comex contract).
Recommendation: Buy
Initial Target Price / Range: $4,220
Initial Timeframe: 23 July 2026 to 4 August 2026
Stop Loss: $3,980
Gold prices remain in a short-term downward trend that extends from their late January record peak to today. CPM has had a Gold Sell Trade Recommendation in place, but that was stopped out by the recent short-term strength in gold prices.
CPM still expects gold prices to decline between now and late August, but is issuing an ultra-short-term Gold Buy Recommendation here for several reasons.
- Political and military issues related to the U.S. attacks on Iran, Iran’s attacks on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, the spread of this to the Houthis’ attacks on ships in the Bab-el-Mandeb strait at the mouth of the Red Sea, worsening conditions in that war, sharply rising oil prices, domestic U.S. political hostilities, and more are raising risks and uncertainties for the economy and financial markets.
- The approaching delivery period for the active August Gold Comex futures contract. There remain 20.2 million ounces of open interest in the August contract. Around 12.7 million ounces have been rolled into the December futures contract and another 3.1 million into the October contract, but the remaining 20.2 million ounces remain to be dealt with – either buy being rolled forward, bought back outright, of delivered when August becomes deliverable. Most of this is likely to be rolled forward over the next two weeks. This could push gold prices higher during the next two weeks, followed by prices declining once more should political and economic conditions permit.
- Gold prices are approaching a critical downward technical trend line. A break above this could lead technically oriented investors and computers to buy gold, which could push prices higher.
All of these factors could lead to higher gold prices over the next two weeks.
Again, depending on the course of political and economic developments prices might resume their decline in August.
CPM continues to expect gold prices to rise beyond August.
CPM has one-month, three-month ranges and eight-quarter quarterly price projections with greater discussion of the factors behind CPM’s analyses provided in CPM’s monthly subscription service, the Precious Metals Advisory.
While short-term trade recommendations provide high risk – high reward opportunities for investors, it is difficult to capture the complex web of factors affecting precious metals prices and the nuanced CPM analyses of these factors that goes into our firm’s price projections. In addition to these short-term outlooks, CPM Group provides clients enhanced trade recommendations that include one and three month price projections, as part of our Retail Investor Program. Contact CPM at info@cpmgroup.com for details.
Notes:
Initial Target Prices and Timeframes are just that: Initial. If CPM does not issue a new Recommendation during or after that time it indicates that CPM maintains the posture in the most recent Trade Recommendation. Position may be closed out once target price is reached, within the noted discretion or until CPM provides new trade recommendation. CPM may have reported to have closed out of prior trade recommendation at its discretion before publicly publishing new trade recommendation due to processing time.
Discretion should be allowed at +/- 0.20% of the price at the time each TR is issued from the target.
CPM’s preferred investment strategies use physical, futures, forwards, and options.
