opinion

Gold tests $4,000 as silver struggles at $60: Why a spike may be next

Kitco Media
By CPM Group
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Gold tests $4,000 as silver struggles at $60: Why a spike may be next teaser image

 

Watch: Gold Price Outlook: $4,200 Spike or $3,800 Test?

In this presentation, Jeffrey Christian of CPM Group discusses the gold price outlook, silver market update, COMEX futures positioning, political risks, and the weaker outlook for platinum and palladium. Gold is trading near $4,028 after testing below $4,000 earlier in July. Jeff explains why a break above the current downward trendline could produce a short-lived move toward $4,200. A break below $4,000 could instead lead to another sharp move lower.

Jeff reviews the August COMEX gold futures contract. Open interest fell from 19.3 million ounces to 13.9 million ounces as traders rolled positions into October and December. That activity could support gold for several more days. The effect should fade as the August delivery period begins. Jeff also explains why COMEX is not running out of gold. Registered and eligible stocks total roughly 27 million ounces.

Silver is trading near $57.52 and continues to struggle with resistance around $60. A break above the current trendlines could carry silver toward $64. A break below $55 could open the way to $50 or even $45. Jeff contrasts the political and economic risks supporting gold and silver with the weaker industrial fundamentals for platinum and palladium.

The presentation also addresses the summer slowdown in precious metals, the possibility of stronger gold and silver prices from September through December, and why recent changes in China's gold market were a nonevent rather than the dramatic market shock

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CPM Group

CPM Group is a commodities research, consulting, financialadvisory and commodities management firm providing independent research,analysis and advisory services related to commodities markets, corporate andproject finance, and the financial management of exposure to commodity orientedinvestments.

We started our business in 1986 predicated on the idea that commoditiesresearch and advice is best delivered by independent experts who do not work forbanks, brokers, mining companies, or any other entity that has interests thatcould conflict with the best interests of the clients receiving the research,analysis, and advice.

All of our work is driven by fundamental commodities research and economicanalysis. As we undertake our research into individual commodities markets wegather a tremendous amount of information and develop an enormous body ofextremely high quality, unbiased analysis of the markets and the companies thatare involved with individual commodities. The outputs of our research andanalysis take the form of research reports, specialized and targeted consultingrelated to these markets, financial advisory services ranging from corporate andproject finance structuring to equity introductions, and managing specificcommodities and investment positions for clients.

CPM Group continues to demonstrate the economic value and financial worth ofsuperior research, information, and analysis. Our research is based onmicro-economic analysis of the individual components of each commodity market,wedded with a top-down macro-economic analysis of the global trends affectingthese markets. We apply the results of that analysis to our research,consulting, and advisory services.

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Tags:

silverJeffrey Christiancpm groupGold price outlookgoldSilver market updateCOMEX futurespolitical risksWeaker OutlookOutlookplatinumpalladiumGold TradingDownward trendlineComex gold futuresComexstocksResistancePolitical and economic risksIndustrial fundamentalsSummer Slowdownprecious metalsChina Gold MarketMarket Shock
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