Gold rose on Monday, gaining $41.20 or 0.93% to close at $4,473. This was the highest closing price for gold futures in the past 74 days and is signaling that there may be more room to the upside for the precious metal.
Although gold still has yet to break above its current resistance level formed by the intraday high on June 17th at $4,473 and its 100-day simple moving average now at $4,481, today's candle holds a clue to what may lie ahead. Today was the first time that gold opened and closed above its 23% Fibonacci retracement level at $4,435. The retracement stretches from gold's all-time high to the recent low made on July 17th. If gold can turn this into support, then a break above current resistance is almost inevitable.
If it cannot hold above the 23% Fib. Level at $4,435, then the most likely path forward is sideways. As long as gold can remain above $4,400 on a closing basis the pattern is still bullish and our target remains $4,600 in futures.
This week's calendar carries two events with the power to move gold meaningfully in either direction. First, on Wednesday, August 19, the Federal Reserve releases the minutes from its July 28–29 FOMC meeting at 2:00 p.m. ET. That meeting was unusually contentious — three officials dissented in favor of an immediate rate hike, and Chair Kevin Warsh described the internal deliberations as a "good family fight." Markets will be scrutinizing the minutes to gauge how much influence that hawkish minority truly carries going into the autumn. The broader macro backdrop has been supportive of gold in recent days: July retail sales fell 0.6% against a consensus expectation of a 0.1% gain, and University of Michigan consumer sentiment retreated sharply in August — both readings reducing the near-term case for additional Fed tightening. That softer data has helped push the market-implied probability of a September rate hike from roughly 55% a week ago to around 35% today, and it has pulled the dollar lower as well. Each of those developments is a constructive tailwind for gold.
Looking further down the calendar, the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium runs August 27–29, with Chair Warsh scheduled to deliver his first major keynote address since taking office on May 22. Because the Fed has eliminated forward guidance from its standard communications under Warsh's leadership, a formal speech of this magnitude carries far more informational weight than markets have been accustomed to. The address arrives just 19 days before the September 16 FOMC decision, with hike-or-hold odds still close to a coin flip at that point, meaning every phrase of that keynote could move the metals complex significantly. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East — particularly around the Strait of Hormuz — remain an additional source of underlying support for gold and bear watching as the week unfolds.
In summary, gold's technical setup is constructive, the macro backdrop is cooperative, and the near-term event calendar provides a clear catalyst path for the next leg higher. The bulls have done their work today. The question now is whether they can defend it.
For subscribers who wish to track these levels in real time and receive session-by-session updates, additional analysis is available at thegoldforecast.com.
Wishing you, as always, good trading.
