My August 19 read separates current states from future triggers. Bitcoin pierced resistance without clearing the August 9 pivot and then fully retraced, Ethereum’s bearish pullback thesis remains active without a confirmed ETH/BTC Cloud transition, breadth dominance stays mixed, TradFi is pulling back inside my broader buy-the-dip view, and ALT setups range from confirmed signals to conditional watches.
Bitcoin’s resistance pierce ended in a full retracement after unusual alerts
I saw BTC put in a slightly higher high Tuesday without exceeding the August 9 pivot. The high pierced a resistance line drawn from mid-July through that pivot and also pierced newly tested resistance, but the explosive move fully retraced. A TBT Stop Loss Hunting Alert fired again, including another Coil alert; because Coil alerts are more typical on weekends, this mid-week Coil was unusual. I describe the sequence as market hijinx and extreme manipulation by major players, not as clean bullish conviction.
Ethereum lagged Bitcoin while Volume supported the bearish pullback scenario
ETH followed BTC but not as much as expected and did not reach TBO Resistance. I am still holding my bearish pullback scenario. Volume continues to dry up, and there was zero bullish Volume associated with these pumps—usually an indication that futures liquidations, rather than actual spot-market buyers, are driving the move. ETH/BTC pierced the Cloud during Tuesday’s volatility, hinting at an eventual drop inside it and a transition to bearish consolidation. That transition is expected soon, not confirmed now.
TOTALE50.D confirmed a Breakdown despite bullish RSI divergence
Combined stablecoin dominance moved back into its Cloud without major bearish signs. BTC.D printed an Open Long even though its RSI lower high is a sign of weakness, while ETH.D stayed bullish above its daily TBO Cloud. TOTALE50.D confirmed its first-ever TBO Breakdown Tuesday despite RSI forming technically bullish divergence. I am trusting the Breakdown because TOTALE100.D showed the same divergence before making lower lows in late July. TOTALES pierced overhead resistance, weakening it, but its bearishly descending Slow line and OBV moving-average line still indicate a macro bearish trend. TOTALE50 and TOTALE100 remain very strong bearish. Dominance is market share, not spot price.
DXY’s Cloud trigger and the S&P Fast-line pullback keep timing separate
DXY still had not tagged its Fast line and was starting to move toward the Cloud bottom. Only a close below the Cloud would transition DXY to strong bearish mode and, in my source thesis, support a TradFi pump; I do not treat that trigger as already confirmed. USDJPY was close to its Fast line, with the best case stated as a drop below 155.025 followed by continued downside. S&P Futures was about to tag its Fast line on a short-term pullback, while other TradFi indices left upper gaps. I remain a firm believer that the U.S. stock market heads toward 8k before year-end, so I view pullbacks as buy-the-dip moments.
HYPE’s achieved exit gives way to a still-conditional short watch
HYPE perfectly tagged the Slow line Tuesday, achieving the stated exit target. The next step is not a confirmed short. I am waiting for one more push, maybe up to resistance, which should cause RSI to go overbought; only then can I explore a short position or entry. Elsewhere, SOL closed its recent TBO Close Short but I still expect a drop and do not care about the Open Long in progress. LINK remains strong bullish, though my guess is one more pullback followed by one more push higher before it is done. UNI confirmed a TBO Open Short Tuesday.
PUMP’s short candidate and VVV’s solitary Exhaustion Breakout retain qualifiers
PUMP had another scam pump higher, but RSI failed to make a new high after already losing support. I call it a good short-setup candidate, not a complete trade plan; no entry, stop, invalidation, leverage, take-profit or probability was supplied. SKY moved higher than expected and printed a TBO Close Short, which did not change my bearish expectations. BEAT is heading toward long-term TBO Support and might bounce, but I warned not to hold your breath. FIL paired a negative 6% close with a TBO Breakdown, while CAKE unexpectedly went overbought and looked bullish. VVV printed one solitary TBO (Exhaustion) Breakout, just like last time before it pulled back; that comparison is not a guaranteed repeat.
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