My September 29, 2026 read keeps the bullish BTC trend separate from conditional altcoin downside and reversal warnings.
Bitcoin remains bullish while two pullback paths stay open
Bitcoin / TetherUS · 1D · Binance
BTC remains strong bullish above the daily TBO Cloud. The Slow line is still rising, though less sharply, and I expect a touch of the Fast line to produce the next bounce, as it did three weeks ago. If that bounce does not arrive and the real dip begins, my lower fallback is around $70,000 at the Slow line, shown at $70,808 in this chart snapshot. That fallback is conditional, not my base-case prediction. Monday also showed the asymmetry: BTC closed down 1.15% while many ALTs fell more than 10%. My statement that another 15% BTC drop could cause ALTs to fall as much as 40% is a conditional stress scenario, not a forecast.
Stablecoin dominance points to a short bounce inside a bearish macro trend
USDT.D+USDC.D · 1D · CRYPTOCAP
Combined stablecoin dominance is showing signs of bouncing toward its Fast line at 9.353%, only about 2% above the current level on this chart. I am treating that as a short-term move, not a macro reversal. The Slow line points down more sharply than it did three weeks earlier, so the macro trend remains bearish. Dominance is market share, not stablecoin spot price.
Altcoin dominance can dip without breaking the broader opportunity
Crypto Total Market Cap Excluding Top 10 Dominance, % · 1D · CRYPTOCAP
OTHERS.D took a hit during Monday’s pullback. If it retraces to the Fast line, I view that as another buy-the-dip opportunity, similar to three weeks ago. OTHERS.D is dominance—market share—not a dollar market-cap chart or a spot-price call. That distinction matters when translating a retracement into an altcoin thesis.
Broader market-cap charts remain strong while a pullback develops
Crypto Total Market Cap Excluding Top 50, $ · 1D · CRYPTOCAP
TOTALE50, the market-cap chart excluding the top 50 assets, still looks very strong bullish. I view any pullback to the Fast line as a buy-the-dip moment; I apply the same view to TOTALE100 and OTHERS. This keeps the current bullish state separate from the pullback I would use as an opportunity.
Four VIX Close Shorts form a reversal warning, not a sure pump
Volatility S&P 500 Index · 1D · TVC
The VIX has printed a fourth TBO Close Short since the start of the month. The only other time I have seen something like this was June–July 2014. On a normal chart, that cluster warns of a bullish reversal; a possible VIX pump should coincide with a drop across the charts, affecting both TradFi and crypto. I do not have a sure-fire way to know the VIX will pump from here, especially because the VIX is not a normal price chart. This is a reversal warning, not a certainty.
ADA offers the clearest conditional setup
Cardano / TetherUS · 1D · Binance
ADA has repeatedly retraced to its Slow line since July. If that pattern repeats, I would look for an entry around 0.20 and then a run above 0.28. Both the entry and destination depend on the Slow-line retracement repeating. I am not giving a stop, leverage or execution instruction here.
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