In this presentation, Jeffrey Christian of CPM Group looks at the gold price outlook and silver’s 50% decline from its January peak. Silver is testing $60, but large investors have not rebuilt their short positions even as bullish positions have fallen sharply. Jeff explains why this combination matters and why stronger investment buying remains essential to a sustained price growth.
With gold trading near $4,161 and silver near $60.25. Jeffrey compares gold charts across three timeframes, including technical support around $3,800–$3,900, and explains why further short-term weakness remains possible.
The silver market discussion focuses on CPM’s supply-and-demand framework, which measures newly refined supply against fabrication demand and treats investment purchases separately. Jeff explains why CPM sees a silver surplus and why substantial net investment buying is needed to absorb that metal and sustain higher prices. He reviews silver exchange-traded product flows, renewed selling through August, and changes in COMEX long and short positions.
Jeff then reviews U.S. GDP, consumer spending, borrowing, inflation, and the September jobs report. He discusses why growth supported by consumer credit can conceal financial strain and questions the market’s assumption that recent data may prevent another Federal Reserve interest rate increase.
