Bitcoin got rejected at resistance again today, even with tech bouncing. Here’s the bull case, the bear case, and my take heading into earnings, FOMC, and the midterms.
I’m writing this article 5 hours after the stock market close to squeeze out a little more Bitcoin PA (price action) for context. I get to see a couple of hourly candles after the daily close.
Bitcoin is range bound right now. On the 1-hour chart, there’s strong support around $81,000 and recent resistance around $82,800. That’s exactly what played out today. Bitcoin pushed up into $82,800, got rejected, and slid right back down toward support.
The frustrating part for crypto bulls is that this happened on a green day for tech. After the Nasdaq’s worst week since June, tech bounced today. Chip stocks led the way back, Intel got an upgrade from JPMorgan, and Amazon jumped about 5%. Bitcoin usually follows the Nasdaq, but today the bounce didn’t carry over.
So where does Bitcoin go from here? The bulls look at this one way, the bears look at it another way. I’ll break down both, and then I’ll tell you how I’m looking at it.
The bulls would say Bitcoin is coiling for a breakout. It held above $80,000 all weekend, and last week’s flush cleared out a lot of weak hands. Big tech earnings start on the 27th, and big tech almost always beats, which usually lifts the Nasdaq, and crypto with it. Historically, midterm years tend to set up a strong run into year end, and some Bitcoin analysts say we will see a new high by end of the year.
The bears would say Bitcoin can’t even get above $82,800 on a day when tech is green, and that’s a red flag. Bitcoin’s one-week red dot on Market Cipher B confirmed yesterday at the weekly close. The Nasdaq 100 broke back below the trend line it broke out of in September and has been in a clear downtrend since its October 6 all time high. Inflation came in hot last week, yields are near multi-decade highs, and the Fed is still leaning toward another hike. Oil is elevated again after another attack on shipping, and the AI trade has real questions hanging over it. Some banks are calling for Bitcoin to drop as low as $50,000 before it rebounds, just as other risk assets are now showing weakness.
My take:
The daily green dot on Market Cipher B printed, but it was clearly a muted move. Those heavier time frame waves, with the one-week red dot confirmed yesterday, were too much downward pressure at the moment. I said Friday I wouldn’t be surprised by a bounce when degens bought the dip, and we got one, but it didn’t have much behind it. It seems like it’ll take some kind of real catalyst to get Bitcoin bullish again. There are some coming up soon though: big tech earnings starting on the 27th, the midterms, and FOMC. Until one of those flips the momentum, my bias is sideways to bearish. I trade what the chart shows, not what I hope, and that’s the approach I teach at CassiusCuvee.com. I’m still in my altcoin shorts that have had a relatively bearish bias vs $BTC. This is how I get a little more downside beta to match my bias. They are disclosed in my private group, but none of this is financial advice.
If you want to see these momentum shifts on your own charts, check out the Swell Point indicator. And if you want my calls in real time, tap in with my private discord group, The Profit Circle. General chat is free. 🌊
