Crypto is still chopping, but early bullish reversal evidence is appearing on selected four-hour charts. I believe a broader ALT reversal is coming; that conviction does not erase ETH's confirmed bearish Open Short, incomplete breadth signals, or the extra confirmation I still need from BTC dominance.
Bitcoin’s early reversal signs coexist with daily chop
BTC remains in bearish consolidation inside the daily Cloud. Three TBO Close Shorts on the 4-hour chart are promising short-term, early bullish reversal signals, not a completed daily trend reversal. On the weekly chart, BTC remains above its Cloud and OBV above its white moving-average line. I believe BTC will ultimately go higher, even with noise and chop along the way. That is my macro conviction, not a guaranteed return or a claim that the current daily chop has ended.
Ethereum’s confirmed Open Short comes before any new daily Close Short
ETH is following BTC in chop mode, but Monday's close printed an Open Short. That is bearish confirmation telling us to expect more downside continuation. I am happy to see it because it also sets up the prospect of new TBO Close Shorts: seeing a Close Short on the daily will be a VERY bullish sign for an upcoming reversal. That future daily Close Short has not been identified as present here; the confirmed signal is the bearish Open Short.
Bitcoin dominance needs more than one red day
BTC.D closed red on Monday, ending a seven-day green streak. One red day is not enough to celebrate: I need another red day AND a bearish RSI reset. The 4-hour chart is not giving early pullback warnings yet. Combined stablecoin dominance remains in bullish consolidation; another 4-hour Close Long is present, but its bearish outcome is still pending. Separately, SOL.D printed a bullish RSI reset on Monday and confirmed an Open Short. Yes, that is bearish, but it also means we will see a new Close Short. A shift in dominance toward SOL is not the same thing as an achieved SOL price rally. SOL itself remains in bearish consolidation; if SOL.D keeps moving up, SOL should move up too in my view. Dominance is market share, not spot price.
Altcoin breadth is early and uneven, not a blanket reversal
TOTALES is choppy, but its 4-hour Close Short is a great early bullish reversal signal. TOTALE50, TOTALE100 and OTHERS do not have that signal yet. OTHERS.D closed slightly green Monday but remains in bearish consolidation; TOTALE50.D printed a Close Long Sunday, while TOTALE100.D almost, but did not quite, reach oversold RSI. Separately, TOTAL3ESBTC moved TBO Support higher and printed a bullish RSI reset Monday. I view that ratio chart as representing the Top 10 coins' bullishness or bearishness versus BTC; this is my interpretation, not a formal index definition. Its reset is a pretty good sign we could see a reversal form soon. OTHERS/BTC does not have that development yet. We are still in the early stages of an ALT bullish reversal, but I believe it is coming either way. Do not confuse dollar market cap, dominance, or BTC-relative ratios.
S&P futures stay choppy while I expect an upside push
S&P futures remain in bearish consolidation inside the Cloud, but I still expect a push up and out of the Cloud and above TBO Resistance at 7,899. DXY is still strong bullish above its Cloud, though most likely heading lower this week; a TBT Bearish Divergence or Close Long is wanted, not confirmed, and may take a few days. EURUSD is still strong bearish but has good reversal signs so long as DXY falls soon. USDJPY moved up slightly Monday and remains inside its daily Cloud. NDX, FANG and NVDA printed bullish RSI resets Monday. TSLA and SPCX still look choppy; my buy-the-dip view is conditional on holding inside the Cloud or above significant Fibonacci retracement levels. VIX printed a bearish RSI reset, and Resistance dropped to Monday's high of 18.93. I think the panic was over-hyped and markets will recover to higher highs. The Nikkei is at Slow and its Cloud bottom, historically a bounce area; Shanghai printed a bullish RSI reset. Hang Seng stays strong bearish. KOSPI confirmed a bullish RSI reset but remains strong bearish and weak at Support. Oil is overbought and strong bullish. Gold is strong bearish below its Cloud but holding TBO Support; silver's bullish RSI reset is confirmed, yet a decent bounce is still awaited. PAXG/BTC remains in bullish consolidation just inside the Cloud. I believe this ratio will ultimately go much lower in crypto's Recovery Year; that is a ratio view, not a spot-gold price target.
BNB’s confirmed early signal does not promise an August replay
BNB confirmed its first 4-hour TBO Close Short since late September. It is an early bullish reversal signal, so we should prepare for another move higher. I am NOT saying the August rally from 560 to 809 will repeat; those are historical reference levels, not a new entry and target. Other ALTs differ: HYPE confirmed a bearish Open Short Monday below the 1.272 extension and mid-term support, but I still think it will pump. XMR had a strong bullish close above Resistance Sunday. ADA never broke its bear flag's upper resistance and printed Close Longs. It is around the range of the September 16 and August 18 pullbacks, and I think this is a decent spot to start adding, although I do not want to hold it long-term. ADA has NOT printed the 4-hour Close Shorts that appeared at the start of the previous two bounces; watch for them. ATOM could bounce after three 4-hour Close Shorts. WLD and ARB are back to strong bullish above their Clouds; VVV too, BUT it closed a third Close Long, a warning. STRK is still awaiting a bounce, with only a potential 4-hour bullish RSI reset. PUMP narrowly avoided closing below 0.618 and printed a bullish RSI reset; INJ holds above 0.382. STABLE already tagged Support and bounced, and is working on a bullish RSI reset. MON is at 0.236 and almost, but not quite, oversold; I consider it a good bounce entry zone, without an authored numerical trade plan here. CARDS already bounced 29% Monday back above the Cloud, and S already shot to Resistance. TWT and USELESS are about to print bullish RSI resets, not confirmed resets. BEAM stays super strong bullish. GLM printed a bullish RSI reset and Support moved to Monday's low. WAL fully retraced its 70%+ pump: maybe we will see take two this week, not a confirmed second pump.
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