Oct 20, 2026
1. It’s becoming more apparent that Western nations are in danger of descending into stagflationary quagmires like Venezuela has become.
2. In America for example, the government’s fiat money enthusiasts are focused on debt-themed mid-term elections… while struggling citizens face stifling inflation that threatens to go out of control.
3. Citizens of Russia, Ukraine, and Iran are trying not to get ruined by wars that are beginning to seem like they have no end. What about Asia? Well, the good news is that a big focus of savvy citizens there… appears to be on getting a lot more gold.
4. On that exciting note. All the LBMA and COMEX really bring to the long-term gold market price discovery table is a significant amount of fiat capital.
5. That capital is highly-leveraged and the players are obsessed with the fact that Western governments pay no interest on their gold (if have any) and pay a little bit of interest on their questionable fiat that they print like monopoly money.
6. As Asian gold market infrastructure continues to expand, price discovery will become more oriented around physical market demand versus supply. It’s a long process, and significant investor patience is required.
7. Ironically, while one of gold’s theoretical attributes is that it has no counterparty risk, it must be stored somewhere.
8. Digital gold (essentially gold on a blockchain) can mitigate some of that risk, but not all. Regardless, digital gold boosts demand and… that’s very good news for the price.
9. Interestingly, oil has moved up about 15% over the past 3 weeks, but gold has moved sideways rather than down.
10. The US government is applying pressure on Ukraine, and there’s a motion from the Russian government to bring a third empire on side (China), and try to force Ukraine to appease the Russians enough to end the war. The bottom line for Ukraine:
11. It seems surreal that one empire, let alone two or three, cannot bend Ukraine to do their bidding, and this quagmire could be a reason why oil looks ready to “get out of the box” and roar towards $200-$300.
12. It also seems bizarre that the “Great American Military Empire” needs tiny Israel (the population is about 10million) to handle the government of Iran in a war, yet even with that help, the American government is not handling it well.
13. It will take years to rebuild the Patriot interceptors supply as things stand now. Another debt-funded foray into Iran could see retaliation from the Iranians that turns much of the mid-East oil infrastructure into a de facto wasteland.
14. Also, there’s a point where Western governments are faced with default on not just their debts, but on their interest rate payments.
15. That’s a point where gold should break free of its tie to rates, and skyrocket alongside oil. It’s not a perfect flag, because the flagpole isn’t vertical, but it’s an immensely bullish chart.
16. Stochastics is also moving steadily towards the oversold zone and the last time it was there, gold surged $700/oz in a month and many miners rose 50%-100%.
17. Could an arrival of gold at $3941 coincide with oversold Stochastics and a re-coupling with skyrocketing oil from there? Well, my suggestion is to be a decent gold, silver, and mining stocks buyer if gold trades near $3941.
18. The miners? Clearly, they are a massive buy if gold trades at $3941, and to view a key chart. Double-click to enlarge this monthly GDX chart. The flag pattern for gold is much more aesthetic on this chart. That’s bullish.
19. An inverse H&S pattern is still fully intact on this daily chart, adding weight to the implications of the long-term bull flag chart.
20. GDX also continues to look very good against gold.
21. Gold market gurus and analysts often predict price and fundamental developments correctly… and equally often, they fail. Western gold bugs (both bullion and mining stock bugs) should stay focused on what truly defines gold as the world’s ultimate money.
22. The bottom line is that few analysts predicted that Western governments would freeze Russian fiat when they did, but all analysts were aware that fiat comes with counterparty risk…
23. So they all should have owned gold before that event occurred.
24. It’s unknown exactly what the next fiat and debt-oriented government debacle will be, but it’s coming and that fact alone makes it near-mandatory for savvy gold bugs to be focused on… getting more gold!
Thanks!
