(Kitco Commentary) - Bitcoin bulls had a rough weekend. Price lost the $81,000 support I’ve been writing about for weeks, dipped to around $79,100, and hasn’t even returned to test that newly formed resistance. As I write this, it’s sitting right around $80,000, but not looking very strong as the Nasdaq got rejected at Thursday’s high this morning. The market is still open, but a close below the Thursday high isn’t very bullish.
Nasdaq 100 - 10 minute chart starting Thursday Oct. 22nd
The Nasdaq is doing what it usually does after a couple of red weeks. It’s bouncing off support. Oil is pulling back, and Anthropic’s IPO filing gave tech a lift this morning. After two straight weekly losses, a bounce here isn’t a surprise. The question is whether it will bring new momentum to the bulls for tomorrow. That seems unlikely, but it isn’t required, considering all the news catalysts on Wednesday and Thursday.
Why this week is different:
Wednesday is unusually stacked. The Fed announces its rate decision at 2:00 PM Eastern (11:00 AM Pacific), followed by the chair’s press conference 30 minutes later, then Microsoft and Alphabet report earnings after the bell. Amazon reports earnings 24 hours later. I expect wild volatility in either direction multiple times. That’s a lot of uncertainty packed across 2 days. Bitcoin and crypto will react to all of it, even after hours.
Big tech almost always beats on earnings, and that usually pumps the market. But this time the focus is on AI spending, and whether all that money is paying off. A beat with weak guidance on AI returns could still get sold. And if the Fed sounds more hawkish than expected during the press conference, with oil still elevated, that could override good earnings entirely. I don’t know which way the markets will break and continue, and anyone who tells you they do is guessing or selling you something.
How to trade it:
When an event is this uncertain, you have two options.
Option one: if you’re going to be in a trade going into Wednesday, use a stop loss with enough wiggle room for the volatility. Normal stops get taken out on news days by moves that reverse minutes later. The way around that is a wider stop with a smaller position, so you’re risking the same dollar amount but giving the trade room to breathe.
Option two: wait. Let the news hit, let the first wave of volatility play out, and then enter once you see which direction the market actually picks. You’ll miss the very first part of the move, but you won’t be guessing. Most of the time, the real trend shows up after the initial spike, not during it. You still want a well-placed stop loss to control downside risk.
I’ll be using both depending on the setup, and posting what I’m seeing in real time in The Profit Circle, my private Discord community. I don’t expect extreme PA (price action) for the rest of today and Tuesday as the markets wait on Wednesday’s Fed rate announcement.
Bitcoin 1hr chart starting Thursday, Oct. 15th, showing the break in support:
Success stories from The Profit Circle:
I’m seeing real success stories come out of The Profit Circle! One member has been trading this volatility really well over the past week, using the strategies I’ve been teaching in the group for the last two years. He’s come a long way. Now he’s putting his own spin on them, and he found consistency by blocking out the noise, the conspiracy theories, and the popular crypto influencers, and sticking to a day trading strategy that keeps working for him. Everyone’s results are different, and trading involves substantial risk, but this is what discipline and a real strategy can look like. Come see for yourself. He posts what he’s doing in the group in real time.
He trades on Breakout Prop, a Kraken-owned prop firm. For a one-time $660 evaluation fee, you can trade a $200,000 account with positions up to $2,000,000 on markets like the S&P 500, without putting your own capital on the line. I’m a Breakout affiliate, and I break down exactly how it works on my YouTube channel if you want the full rundown.
If you want to learn how I read moves like these, that’s what I teach at CassiusCuvee.com, and the Swell Point indicator is built to help you spot when momentum actually shifts after the noise. General chat in The Profit Circle is free!
