(Kitco Commentary) - Bitcoin is testing short-term support again while crypto's dollar market caps move toward oversold conditions. I see the potential for a change of script, not a confirmed reset or bounce. The distinction between confirmed and developing signals matters across the ALT charts.
Bitcoin returns to support without strong reversal energy
Bitcoin is leaning on the short-term support line again, right on it in today's assessment. Tuesday's test was nearly perfect and produced a small bounce, but piercing or closing below this line would hurt badly. The four-hour chart remains strong bearish, with no strong bullish reversal energy beyond yesterday afternoon's TBT Bullish Divergence. March 2023 offers a historical comparison: price pierced a support fan and bounced back. That was a fan rather than today's last support line, so it is not a promise of repetition. ETH remains strong bearish and oversold on RSI, approaching the 2025–2026 0.236 Fibonacci level at 1,994. Approaching a level is not a confirmed rebound.
Stablecoin strength still weighs on crypto
Combined stablecoin dominance is still pushing higher. I am watching its four-hour TBT Bearish Divergences, but the four-hour TBO remains very bullish, which is bearish for crypto in my reading. BTC.D is near a chart-based top zone where a reversal would make sense, yet remains quite bullish. Top 10 dominance is even more oversold on RSI and back at historical TBO Support. OTHERS.D is not behaving as the simplistic opposite of that weakness, while TOTALE50.D and TOTALE100.D are still holding on. Dominance is market share, not spot price: none of those observations independently establishes a dollar-price reversal or proves cash has entered crypto.
Oversold market caps could set up a change of script
TOTALE, crypto's total dollar market capitalization excluding stablecoins, is going oversold on RSI. OTHERS is going oversold as well. That is the potential good news in progress: if both go oversold, I will be very happy because it is a flip-the-script signal to me. TOTALE's move creates the prospect of a long-overdue bullish RSI reset. The reset is potential, not already confirmed, and oversold market caps do not establish that a bounce has begun. These dollar market-cap charts must stay separate from TOTALE50.D, TOTALE100.D and other market-share charts.
Stocks recover unevenly as the dollar surprises higher
DXY shot above the 0.5 Fibonacci level yesterday, which surprised me. Expectations of another December rate hike are a rumored explanation for the dollar's rise, not an established policy decision or proven cause. I expect another chart high with a lower RSI high. The euro lost TBO Support again, while USD/JPY popped above its Cloud. SPX recovered to Fast, and its OBV moving average is flattening and starting to curl upward, which I read as bullish. DJI printed an Open Long. NDX nearly touched Fast, a move I usually treat as a rejection warning; FANG nearly retraced to Fast too. Russell 2000 printed a fourth TBO Close Short. Those named events do not make every index an Open Long. NVDA was down roughly 7% after hours in this snapshot, and I still see it as an excellent long-term buy; that is my investment view, not a confirmed bottom or an executed position. VIX stayed inside the daily Cloud. Hang Seng retraced to Fast, fulfilling the previous Close Short. Oil futures remain in bearish consolidation.
Gold falls while the Bitcoin ratio stays conditional
Gold continues to drop for a third day in a row. PAXG/BTC is still holding its 0.5 Fibonacci level for now. If this week closes red, my guess is that the weekly Fast line will be pulled down to tag this week's upper wick, marking a pivot away from gold and into Bitcoin. That is a conditional forecast on a relative chart, not a completed weekly close, proof of capital flows, or a guarantee that Bitcoin's dollar price rises. Holding the Fibonacci level for now does not remove that weekly condition.
ALT signals diverge: confirmed, developing and still waiting
ZEC closed oversold on RSI yesterday for the first time since June 6 and might already be printing a bullish RSI reset today; that reset is developing. XMR is working on a second TBO Close Long, a strong bearish reversal warning, not a completed second signal. AVAX confirmed a second TBT Bullish Divergence with an ascending Slow line, which is bullish in my reading. That confirmed signal is bullish to me, but it does not establish a price recovery. GRAM is pushing higher. WLD is finally at historical TBO Support. WLFI is up 1% on the day. PEPE dropped nearly 16% and printed a Close Long after repeated TBO Pro Trend Meter warnings of a pullback. JUP printed a TBT Bullish Divergence with an ascending Slow line and simultaneously fulfilled its previous Close Long; that is distinct from AVAX's second confirmed divergence. INJ was rejected again at the 0.382 Fibonacci level. BEAM remains strong bullish, and I am waiting to see when a Close Long arrives. Indicator names describe chart events, not my personal positions or automatic entries.
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