(Kitco Commentary) - CPM Gold Trade Recommendation
Time Stamp
Prices as of 10:23 a.m. EST 13 November 2026 $3,895.60 (Basis the December 2026 Comex contract).
Recommendation: Stand Aside
Initial Target Price / Range: $3,800 - $4,160
Initial Timeframe: 13 November 2026 to 27 November 2026
Stop Loss: NA
Gold prices fell sharply yesterday to $3,856.70 from a recent high of $4,157.70 on 9 November, before recovering. The decline, along with other metals and commodities, as well as equity prices and bond prices around the world, reflected a shift in financial market consensus attitudes: Toward higher inflation expectations, higher U.S. interest rates as a result, lower economic growth going forward, and shifting but still highly problematic political conditions both globally and domestically in several major countries.
There had been momentum building for higher prices since the start of November. The move higher failed to break resistance levels in recent days, however, as the above-mentioned menu of potentially hostile developments gained prominence in the minds of investors. The lack of follow-through buying after gold rose around $160 in four trading days no doubt was one of the reasons why prices retreated sharply yesterday, following a break below the $4,000 support level.
Attitudes toward a 25 bip increase in the Fed Funds rate at the FOMC 8 – 9 December meeting have grown sharply, to 91% in the CME Fedwatch market. There also has been increased talk of a 50 basis points increase by the Fed, either in December or in two stages, following higher than expected inflation figures for the United States in October, released earlier this week.
There also has been some U.S. dollar appreciation, which typically weighs on U.S. dollar denominated commodities.
This all said, the recent decline in gold prices only appears to have overflowed onto silver prices, with platinum and palladium prices being relatively less affected. If prices manage to hold support over the next few days they could recover quickly. In the meantime, there are various economic, financial, political, and technical forces pulling at prices on the up and downside.
CPM has one-month, three-month ranges and eight-quarter quarterly price projections with greater discussion of the factors behind CPM’s analyses provided in CPM’s monthly subscription service, the Precious Metals Advisory.
While short-term trade recommendations provide high risk – high reward opportunities for investors, it is difficult to capture the complex web of factors affecting precious metals prices and the nuanced CPM analyses of these factors that goes into our firm’s price projections. In addition to these short-term outlooks, CPM Group provides clients enhanced trade recommendations that include one and three month price projections, as part of our Retail Investor Program. Contact CPM at info@cpmgroup.com for details.
Notes:
Initial Target Prices and Timeframes are just that: Initial. If CPM does not issue a new Recommendation during or after that time it indicates that CPM maintains the posture in the most recent Trade Recommendation. Position may be closed out once target price is reached, within the noted discretion or until CPM provides new trade recommendation. CPM may have reported to have closed out of prior trade recommendation at its discretion before publicly publishing new trade recommendation due to processing time.
Discretion should be allowed at +/- 0.20% of the price at the time each TR is issued from the target.
CPM’s preferred investment strategies use physical, futures, forwards, and options.
