(Kitco Commentary) - Friday the 13th has brought another round of important technical developments.
The U.S. dollar has fulfilled its bullish projections, while gold, silver, and copper have reached significant downside targets.
But the story doesn't end there.
The dollar is approaching another important resistance zone, silver is moving closer to a potential resolution of its weekly triangle, and gold is facing a critical test of long-term support.
Meanwhile, platinum remains vulnerable to another decline, palladium is attempting to recover lost ground, and copper's technical picture is deteriorating across multiple time frames.
With the weekly close approaching, which market will deliver the next decisive signal?
Let's focus on two particularly interesting developments.
U.S. Dollar (DX.F) - Targets Achieved. Is There More Fuel in the Tank?
The dollar bulls have delivered on Wednesday's bullish roadmap:
“(…) if buyers confirm the breakout above the previous peak, the orange consolidation's height points toward a minimum upside target near 103.08. Beyond that, two Fibonacci extensions - 127.2% and 150% - establish the next resistance area at 103.17-103.20.(…)”
Thursday's session confirmed that the bulls were following the script.
The dollar closed at 103.09, fulfilling the minimum upside target derived from the orange consolidation. Its intraday high at 103.17 also tested the next Fibonacci resistance zone.
And Friday brought another bullish attempt.
A fresh opening gap at 103.09-103.13 encouraged buyers to extend their advance, pushing the index as high as 103.21. However, the gap was subsequently tested intraday, and the resistance zone remains an obstacle.
What Comes Next?
With the consolidation target achieved and Fibonacci resistance tested, some profit-taking and a temporary pullback wouldn't be surprising. Nevertheless, as long as the dollar holds above the previously broken October high at 102.73, buyers retain an important argument for continuing their advance.
Their next major objective?
The 103.35-103.39 resistance zone, where the upper boundary of the green monthly rising wedge meets the daily 138.2% Fibonacci extension.
But there's another reason today's session matters.
On W1, the dollar is attempting to confirm a breakout above the upper boundary of the black rising wedge near 102.36, a level that also corresponds to the monthly 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Therefore, a daily and weekly close above 102.36 - particularly with the weekly wedge breakout intact - would strengthen the bullish case for a challenge of 103.35-103.39. The earlier unsuccessful breakout attempt in October reminds us why the weekly close matters.
Daily Takeaways: the targets near 103.08 and 103.17-103.20 have been reached. Profit-taking is possible but holding above 102.73 and confirming the weekly breakout above 102.36 would favor a move toward 103.35-103.39.
Bottom Line: Dollar bulls have achieved their immediate objectives. Now they must prove they can preserve their gains and challenge the next major resistance zone.
Silver (SI.F) - The Bears Reach 5000 as a Weekly Triangle Tightens
Silver has also delivered on our previous bearish expectations.
Let’s recall the quote from yesterday’s Premium Lab Note:
“(…) Silver fell below the support levels highlighted in yesterday's commentary, bringing a test of the psychological 5000barrier increasingly close.(…)”
Thursday's sellers wasted little time reaching that objective.
Silver dropped to 4966.50, breaking below the psychological 5000 barrier intraday. However, buyers recovered the level before the daily close, invalidating the immediate breakdown.
Unfortunately for the bulls, Friday brought another complication.
A fresh bearish gap at 4998.70-5006.50 opened the Asian session, triggering further deterioration in the following hours, which means that our yesterday’s downside roadmap remains relevant:
“(…) 4889.50: the lower boundary of the orange consolidation
4862: the November low
4836: the 150% Fibonacci extension
What could invalidate this bearish scenario?
In our opinion, only a successful recovery and daily close above both the orange consolidation's upper boundary and the red triangle's upper boundary, meaning a close above the 5227-5231.50 resistance zone. (…)”
But the weekly chart adds something particularly important.
Silver is approaching the narrowing end of the red triangle, with its lower boundary supported by the nearby 61.8% Fibonacci retracement around 4861. This creates an increasingly significant technical battleground.
A confirmed weekly breakdown beneath that combination could signal something more serious than another short-term decline. Conversely, a successful breakout above the triangle's upper boundary would strengthen the bullish outlook.
Weekly Stochastic and CCI are already deeply depressed, making a counterattack possible, but oversold indicators alone don't establish a buy signal. Therefore, the weekly closing price will be especially important.
Daily Takeaways: the 5000 objective has been reached. The next support combination lies around 4889.50-4836, reinforced by weekly Fibonacci support near 4861. A daily close above 5227-5231.50 remains the key bullish invalidation condition.
Bottom Line: Silver is approaching an important decision point inside its narrowing weekly triangle. The bears have momentum, but the next confirmed breakout or breakdown could prove more significant than the latest test of 5000.
What About Gold, Platinum, Palladium, and Copper?
Gold - A Major Support Test
Gold's sellers have fulfilled another bearish projection, but the latest recovery attempt hasn't resolved the bigger technical problem. The metal remains below an important long-term support line, making Friday's weekly close particularly significant. Could another wave of selling pressure be ahead?
Platinum - The Bears Keep Defending Resistance
Platinum buyers have once again failed to overcome their declining resistance line. With the latest recovery losing momentum, attention is shifting toward an important support combination. Failure to defend it could open the door to a deeper correction.
Palladium - Can Buyers Reclaim Lost Ground?
After successfully defending a key declining channel boundary, palladium buyers have launched another recovery attempt. A fresh bullish gap has helped them regain important levels intraday, but the market still needs stronger closing-price confirmation.
Copper - Trouble Across Three Time Frames
Copper has reached another downside target, but that's only part of the story. The daily chart is struggling to recover lost support, the weekly chart is approaching an important Fibonacci decision, and the monthly chart is flashing a warning that could have longer-term consequences.
What happens if these critical levels fail to hold?
Final Thought - Targets Reached, Decisions Ahead
Several markets have already fulfilled their recent technical projections, but reaching a target isn't the same as confirming the next move.
The dollar is testing its ability to sustain a bullish breakout, silver is approaching an important technical decision, and other metals are struggling to defend critical support.
That's why Friday's closing prices matter.
They may tell us whether this week's developments are the beginning of something bigger or whether buyers still have enough strength to change the picture.
Stay curious, respect the evidence, and let the closing candles have the final word.
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