(Kitco Commentary) - Bitcoin’s selloff is bringing my bottom signals into view
Bitcoin had fallen more than 5% wick to wick at the time of my November 13 update, dropping below Fibonacci support. The intraday low was around $67,568 and RSI was deeply oversold at 17.29. I am buying into this decline because several of the bottom signals I watch are appearing.
The important missing piece is a massive volume spike, which I would view as a stronger vote of confidence in a bottom. The daily candle still had about 13 hours remaining when I made that observation, so neither the low nor the candle’s final state was settled. I also noted a fresh TBT Stop Loss Hunting alert and two TBT Bullish Divergences on BTC just below the 0.236 level. Later in the update, I put Bitcoin’s total drawdown since September 21 at about 22%. My buying stance is clear, but it is not a claim that the final low has been confirmed.
Ethereum fills its fair-value gap
Ethereum filled its fair-value gap during the update, which I regard as another useful buy or bottom signal. ETH/BTC was still declining, but it was also showing bullish divergence between lower lows on the chart and higher lows on RSI.
Those are two distinct observations: the fair-value gap is on Ethereum’s chart, while the divergence is on ETH/BTC. The ratio’s continued decline matters even as the divergence strengthens my interest. I am looking at opportunities to buy, not describing a completed broad recovery.
Bitcoin dominance develops a Close Long warning
Bitcoin dominance followed Thursday’s sharp rejection with a TBO Close Long in progress. That developing warning caught my attention alongside improving SOL dominance and a bullish RSI reset there. OTHERS.D was also moving higher, but a close above its Cloud was still the condition I wanted to see for a stronger signal.
Stablecoin dominance remained an important counterweight: it had wicked above the daily Cloud, while its hourly chart printed a TBT Bearish Divergence. I hope that divergence holds, but the wick is not a confirmed close and the divergence does not prove a reversal. Dominance measures market share, not spot price, and these relative shifts are not direct measurements of cash moving into individual coins.
Altcoin relative strength improves, with resistance still overhead
OTHERS/BTC was up about 2% at the time of the update. I am watching for a push above its Cloud and a close above overhead resistance; those are the conditions behind my expectation of a larger altcoin bounce, not milestones I am claiming have already happened.
The broader market was also deeply oversold. TOTALES had an RSI reading around 16.50, the lowest I had seen since June, while OTHERS was nearly as oversold as it was in June. TOTALE50 and TOTALE100 still looked better to me than BTC and ETH even though their trends remained strongly bearish below their Clouds. In the dominance charts, TOTALE50.D was moving toward the top of its Cloud and TOTALE100.D was moving back inside. I see a buying opportunity in BTC and selected altcoins, while keeping those market-cap and dominance signals separate.
Gold versus Bitcoin reaches the weekly signal I was watching
PAXG/BTC tagged its weekly Fast line and fulfilled the previous TBO Close Long bounce. Together with stablecoin dominance fulfilling its weekly Close Long bounce and Bitcoin’s heavily oversold condition, that completed the group of bottom signals I was watching. This is my interpretation of the setup; Bitcoin’s missing volume spike still matters.
Traditional markets were not uniformly supportive. DXY continued higher with a four-hour TBO Breakout. I was unsure whether it represented exhaustion or continuation, although overbought RSI made exhaustion more likely in my view. S&P futures were still struggling to move back into their Cloud and had not fully retraced last week’s decline. Gold had returned to TBO Support and was holding it at the time of the update, while copper looked weak.
JUP builds strength while other altcoins retain warning signals
JUP closed above its Fast line inside the Cloud, a sign of building strength in my read. BEAM remained strongly bullish above its Cloud, and ICP was holding inside its Cloud through the volatility. I also bought more INJ while continuing to wait for a push above the 0.382 Fibonacci level.
My bullish buying stance does not erase the warnings. WLD remained an opportunity zone to me while working on a Breakdown, and HBAR was working on a second TBO Breakdown after setting a new low. PIEVERSE printed a four-hour Close Long, which I treated as a take-profit reminder rather than proof that its rally was over. USELESS was working on a third TBT Bullish Divergence. These developing signals and confirmed observations have different meanings, so I am not treating every altcoin as the same trade.
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