off-the-wire

Gold could hit $5,000 an ounce in first half of 2026, says HSBC

Kitco Media
By Reuters
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Updated:
Reuters
Gold could hit $5,000 an ounce in first half of 2026, says HSBC teaser image

Jan 8 (Reuters) - Gold prices could rise to $5,000 an ounce in the first half of 2026 on geopolitical risks and rising debt, HSBC said on Thursday.

However, the bank lowered its average 2026 price forecast for gold to $4,587 an ounce from $4,600, citing risks that rising prices could trigger a correction later in the year.

It added that this correction could be deeper should geopolitical risks subside or if the U.S. Federal Reserve stops cutting interest rates.

"We see a wide range of $5,050-$3,950/oz for 2026 and an end-year price of $4,450/oz," HSBC said, adding that trade is likely to feature high volatility.

HSBC also raised its 2027 and 2028 average price forecasts to $4,625 and $4,700, from $3,950 and $3,630 respectively. The note flagged a 2027 year-end price view of $4,600 and introduced a 2029 average price forecast of $4,775.

Spot gold was trading near $4,427.48 on Thursday after logging a 64% annual gain in 2025, its biggest since 1979.

Reporting by Anjana Anil in Bengaluru Editing by David Goodman

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