Oil pangs resurface for rupee, options market gauge signals bearish bias

Kitco Media
By Reuters
Published:
Updated:
Reuters
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MUMBAI, July 13 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee slipped to its weakest level in more than a month on Monday, as oil prices rose ​after U.S. and Iran traded strikes, with Tehran saying it had ‌closed the vital Strait of Hormuz.

The rupee closed at 95.62 per dollar, down 0.3% from its previous session close, after touching an intraday low of 95.85.

The currency's losses would have been ​steeper had it not been for the likely central bank intervention, traders ​said.

Brent crude rose 3% to $78 per barrel, keeping markets jittery over ⁠the impact of higher energy costs if the hostilities in the Gulf carry ​on.

Steep increases in oil can widen India's, the world's third-largest energy importer, current account ​deficit, slow growth, and lift inflation.

A key currency options market gauge of rupee depreciation risk - the 1-month 25-delta dollar-rupee risk reversal - drifted to 0.3 from nearly 0 at the start of the ​month.

A rise shows that demand for options betting on a weaker rupee has ​outpaced the appetite for wagers on a rise in the South Asian unit.

The rupee's "sensitivity to headlines ‌will ⁠likely remain elevated in the near future and demand a more assertive market presence by the Reserve Bank of India to limit sharp moves," a trader at a state-run bank said.

Meanwhile, data released on Monday showed that India's merchandise trade deficit widened ​to $30.43 billion in June ​as exports fell ⁠faster than imports.

Investors now await the release of consumer inflation data later in the day, which is expected to show CPI ​rising above the central bank's 4% medium-term target for the ​first time ⁠in 16 months, according to a Reuters poll.

Elevated inflation could pressure the central bank to hike interest rates, with Goldman Sachs analysts expecting the Reserve Bank of India ⁠to hike ​rates by 25 basis points each in October ​and December, while swap markets are pricing in a similar amount of rate increases over the next ​12 months.

Reporting by Jaspreet Kalra; Editing by Ronojoy Mazumdar, Eileen Soreng and Harikrishnan Nair

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