July 28 (Reuters) - Analysts have cut their gold price forecasts for the first time since late 2023 after a sharp pullback from January's record highs, a Reuters poll showed, but most still expect support from central bank buying and concerns about fiscal sustainability.
The survey of 29 analysts and traders conducted over the past three weeks returned a median gold forecast of $4,509 per troy ounce for 2026. This compares with $4,916 estimated three months ago and marks the first time forecasts have been trimmed in 11 quarters.
The average forecast for 2027 is $4,610 compared with $5,100 in the previous poll. [COMMODS-GOLD] [PREC/POLL]
Gold hit a record $5,595 an ounce in January before retreating sharply in the second quarter, its worst since 2013, as the Iran war stoked energy inflation and rate-hike expectations.
Spot gold has fallen about 22% since the war began.
However, analysts say the core structural drivers for gold such as geopolitical tensions, government debt and currency debasement remain intact.
"Barring short-term noise, we think the structural foundation of the gold rally has not changed," said Standard Chartered analyst Suki Cooper. "Gold prices are searching for a floor before they can focus on the next upside catalyst."
CENTRAL BANK BUYING UNDERPINS OUTLOOK
A common theme in responses to the poll was that central banks are likely to remain the most reliable source of demand, even if purchases moderate from recent record levels.
"Fiscal deterioration, concerns over currency credibility and the gradual move away from excessive dependence on the dollar remain firmly in place," said David Russell, CEO at precious metals dealer and broker GoldCore.
Meanwhile, analysts were generally less optimistic about jewellery consumption, particularly in India and China, the world's largest physical gold markets.
High prices are likely to continue to weigh on demand, particularly in India following an increase in import duties, said Anushree Ganeriwala, an analyst at the Economist Intelligence Unit.
In May, India had raised import tariffs on gold and silver to 15% from 6%, as part of efforts to curb overseas purchases of the metals and ease pressure on the country's foreign exchange reserves.
INDUSTRIAL CONCERNS WEIGH ON SILVER
Analysts expect silver to average $72 per ounce in 2026, below the $78 forecast three months ago.
Silver's dual role as both a precious and industrial metal has left it exposed to concerns about slowing industrial activity and weak solar-sector demand even though the market remains structurally tight, the poll found.
"Improvements on the back of AI, EVs and renewed solar will underpin solid industrial expansion and give support from $40 upwards," said StoneX analyst Rhona O'Connell.
