Mapping the Market: A breather, then more gains for US tech shares

Kitco Media
By Reuters
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Reuters
Mapping the Market: A breather, then more gains for US tech shares teaser image

Aug 20 (Reuters) - U.S. technology shares may need to pause after their recent run-up, but chart patterns suggest the rally could still have room to go.

Tech shares, as measured by the Vanguard Information Technology ‌ETF (VGT), are forming what technical analysts call a "bull flag," a pattern that typically signals a continuation of an existing uptrend rather than its end.

The pattern consists of a sharp rally, known as the flagpole, ​followed by a period of sideways or mildly downward drift, called the flag, ​as the market digests recent gains.

This marks the second time since late ⁠last year that VGT has produced this setup. The first flag formed from October ​to April, and then the fund broke higher from a low of 83.30 to a ​peak of 125.97, according to data supplied by LSEG. Using the size of that move, analysts can calculate a "measured move" projection from the more recent low of 108.15 to a target of roughly 150-151.

Trading ​volume offers additional support for the bullish view. Volume climbed during the recent price surge ​but has since eased during the consolidation phase, mirroring the pattern seen during the October-April flag. That ‌pattern ⁠typically reflects a "distribution" phase, when early buyers take profits while new participants step in, even as the strongest conviction remains tied to the earlier rally.

But investors may need to be patient. The Relative Strength Index, a market measure of momentum, is still somewhat elevated after ​the recent run-up. This ​doesn't negate the ⁠bullish setup, but indicates that the market needs more time to digest the price action.

The bullish case would weaken, however, if VGT ​breaks below its recent low near 108 as well as the ​flag base — which ⁠is still a moving target — invalidating the pattern.

What the chart shows:

A bull flag pattern has formed for the second time since late 2025

Measured-move target from the pattern points to roughly 150-151

A ⁠drop ​below 108 would invalidate the bullish setup

(Daily markets commentary ​from Reuters analysts on the signals financial charts are sending - and what they might mean.)

Christopher Romano is a Reuters ​market analyst. The views expressed are his own; Editing by Burton Frierson and Nia Williams

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