Goldman Sachs pushes Fed rate hike forecast to December

Kitco Media
By Reuters
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Reuters
Goldman Sachs pushes Fed rate hike forecast to December teaser image

Oct 1 (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs pushed its forecast for the next US interest rate hike to December after a softer-than-anticipated ​inflation reading cooled expectations the Federal Reserve would ‌hike rates again in October.

The brokerage had previously forecast a 25-basis-point increase in October.

"We are pushing back the second hike ​in our forecast to December, and we see ​a strong chance that the FOMC will ultimately ⁠conclude that additional rate hikes are unnecessary," Goldman Sachs ​said in a note on Wednesday.

The Fed raised rates in September, ​marking its first hike in three years and the first policy move under new chief, Kevin Warsh, in a bid to ​tackle inflation.

Data on Wednesday showed US inflation rose less ​than expected in August. The personal consumption expenditures price index increased ‌3.4% ⁠on an annual basis in August, below the 3.7% estimate of economists polled by Reuters.

On Tuesday, Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams said the central ​bank had time ​to weigh ⁠the data before deciding when to hike interest rates again.

Rate futures markets now reflect ​about a 38% probability of a quarter-percentage-point ​rate hike ⁠in October, according to CME Group's FedWatch Tool, from roughly 51% in the prior session and nearly 71% a ⁠week ​ago.

Market participants are focused on ​the crucial US nonfarm payrolls report for September that is due on ​Friday.

Reporting by Kanchana Chakravarty in Bengaluru; Editing by Mrigank Dhaniwala

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