Canadian dollar holds near four-week high as investors stick to rate hike bets

Kitco Media
By Reuters
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Reuters
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TORONTO, Oct 21 (Reuters) - The Canadian dollar steadied near a four-week high against its US counterpart on Wednesday as investors stuck with bets the ​Bank of Canada would raise interest rates at a policy ‌decision next week.

The loonie was barely changed at 1.4050 per US dollar, or 71.17 US cents, after touching on Tuesday its strongest intraday level since September 22 at ​1.4030.

"The broader move reflects a combination of a softer USD and ​a more hawkish Bank of Canada," said Tony Valente, senior ⁠FX dealer at AscendantFX.

On Saturday, Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem said ​the central bank expects to raise its quarterly inflation forecast significantly this month ​owing to persistently high crude oil and petroleum product prices.

Investors see a roughly 80% chance the BoC raises its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.50% ​on October 28.

"Although expectations for a BoC rate hike have increased, the ​outlook remains uncertain," said Valente, adding that uncertainty around trade relations between the US and ‌Canada ⁠is a significant headwind for Canadian economic growth and the loonie.

Canada and the province of Ontario unveiled a C$9 billion joint support package to help the steel and auto sectors deal with US tariffs and also boost critical ​mineral supply chains.

Canadian ​retail sales data ⁠for August, due on Friday, could offer clues on the state of the domestic economy. Analysts expect sales to ​rebound 1.3% after falling 0.7% in July.

The price of oil, ​one of ⁠Canada's major exports, fell on Wednesday as investors weighed possible progress toward Russia-Ukraine talks against declining US oil stocks.

US crude oil futures were down 0.9% at $96.98 ⁠a ​barrel, while the US dollar edged 0.1% lower ​against a basket of major currencies.

Canadian government bond yields eased across the curve, with the 10-year ​down 2.6 basis points at 3.867%.

Reporting by Fergal Smith; Editing by Nia Williams

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