Dollar firms as hot inflation, hawkish Fed talk lift rate-hike bets

Kitco Media
By Reuters
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Reuters
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Nov 11 (Reuters) - The dollar rose ​against most currencies on Wednesday, extending gains after inflation data and hawkish comments from Federal Reserve ‌officials a day earlier fuelled bets that the US central bank will raise interest rates next month.

The US dollar index , which measures the greenback's strength against a basket of six currencies, was 0.3% higher at 102.53, hitting a four-week ​high.

The gauge traded up 0.5% on Tuesday after data showed US consumer prices increased by more than ​expected in October with costs higher for food and accommodations, marking a third ⁠consecutive month of upside surprises.

"The dollar has continued to have some broad-based support on the expectation that ​the Fed would be more aggressive in their monetary tightening," said Rory Glass, an FX dealer at ​Marex in London.

The Japanese yen eased 0.3% to its weakest in over two months, coming close to the psychologically important 160-per-dollar mark.

The euro depreciated to $1.113, extending losses after a fall of more than 0.5% on Tuesday. Data on Wednesday showed ​German inflation slowed to 2.8% in October, confirming a preliminary reading.

Illustration picture of Japanese yen and U.S. dollar banknotes

Japanese yen and U.S. dollar banknotes are seen in this illustration picture taken June 16, 2022. REUTERS/Florence Lo/Illustration Purchase Licensing Rights, opens new tab

The pound fell 0.2% to $1.33 and was pinned ​near its lowest point in two weeks, while the Swiss franc weakened 0.5% to hit a two-week low. The Australian ‌dollar ⁠edged 0.1% lower, hovering near a seven-month low.

Comments from voting members of the Federal Reserve's rate-setting committee signalling unease over high inflation have firmed up expectations for further rate hikes, with traders now fully pricing in a 25-basis-point rate hike in December, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

Traders even saw slim chances of ​a 50-bp rate hike ​next month and close ⁠to 75 bps worth of hiking by September next year, according to data compiled by LSEG.

Some brokerages revised their calls on future Fed monetary policy after ​Tuesday's data, with Goldman Sachs now expecting hikes in December and March, while Deutsche Bank ​expects hikes ⁠in December, January and March.

Most developed-market currencies, barring the Australian dollar and the Norwegian crown , have weakened against the dollar so far this year as a widening interest-rate gap boosted the US currency.

Some analysts also attributed the ⁠dollar's ​strength this year to safe-haven flows amid the US-Israeli war on ​Iran.

In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin was 0.3% higher at $73,973.5, holding near its lowest in over two months. Ether held steady at $2,055.5.

Reporting by Shashwat Chauhan ​in Bengaluru and Gregor Stuart Hunter in Singapore; Editing by Shri Navaratnam, Stephen Coates, Thomas Derpinghaus and Joe Bavier

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