June 4, 202
- The sideways correction continues for gold and most bank analysts remain positive on the metals.
For a look at Goldman's take on the matter. Is their bullish posture justified… is gold really headed towards $2700 this year?
For some insight into the matter. Elections have taken place in Mexico and India and the EU is next.
- Most of them are good for gold.
It's only a matter of time before the entire BRICS group launches their own version of the SWIFT money transfer system.
- That's a significant accelerant for de-dollarization… which of course is good news for gold.
Oil? Double-click to enlarge this weekly oil price chart. A drop in oil reflects the fade in debt-funded growth in the West.
- It also could cause concern for the governments of nations like Russia and Iran who rely on oil sales to keep their economies growing.
Double-click to enlarge this daily oil price chart. Note the fascinating synergy between oil, the dollar index, and US rates. Sometimes oil trades in sync with gold, and at other times it trades in sync with the dollar and rates, as it is right now.
Does the collapse in the price of oil indicate a US stock market crash is imminent. Well. Double-click to enlarge this Dow Industrials chart.
Double-click to enlarge. Basis Dow Theory, there's a bearish non-confirmation in play.
- The Dow Transports have made a new intermediate trend low, while the Industrials have not, and for both a relief rally is in play now.
- The bottom line: If both the "Trannies" and the Industrials break their April and May lows, a bear market is probably confirmed.
- The most likely time for this to happen is the month of August… but given how close both indexes are to their 2024 lows, it could happen as early as this week.
Double-click to enlarge this short-term chart for gold. From a technical perspective, the world's greatest metal (and money) appears to be consolidating rather than forming a top.
- I've laid out a big $2300-$2365 buy zone for gold and the price is almost there now. Given the overbought condition on the weekly charts of most mining stocks and silver bullion, my suggestion is to buy those items in the buy zone for gold… but with very modest size.
Double-click to enlarge this daily gold futures chart. With the Indian election over today, the citizens there are ready to focus on getting more gold.
- That's likely the fundamental driver for a floor at $2330-$2265.
- A lot of analysts are trying to figure out where gold would go if $2285 "breaks". That's a mistake. The first order of investing business is always to focus on the buy zone at hand.
- It's gold. It's the world's most awesome investment and investors who get too finicky with their price projections usually end up missing key zones to buy.
On that key note. Double-click to enlarge this "Memory Lane" chart. Back in 2003, gold suddenly declined to the buy zone of $337. Analysts who failed to buy and instead tried to project the exact low were left behind.
- It happened again the following year. In 2004, gold suddenly declined from $433 to the key buy zone of $384. Most citizens of India raced to buy with joy, while Western analysts wasted their time trying to predict what would happen next.
- With $2300-$2265 coming into focus, the situation is identical today; there's nothing to predict but there is a key zone to buy!
Double-click to enlarge. On the daily chart, the Stochastics oscillator (14,7,7 series) is almost oversold and RSI sits just above 50 (the momentum zone). A gold price dip to $2300-$2265 would see that Stochastics oscillator become oversold. Let's hope that all mine stock enthusiasts are ready to buy!
