Bitcoin Price Action and Key Levels
Bitcoin established a local high just shy of $98,000 after breaching the TBO Resistance and confirming a TBO Open Long signal. On-Balance Volume is rising alongside strong trading volume, yet the daily RSI stalled at overhead resistance, and the 4-hour TBO Breakout printed late in the rally, suggesting a potential exhaustion move rather than a clean continuation.
Despite these cautionary indicators, BTC remains poised to test the weekly TBO Fast line at $98,200—our “first touch” target for several weeks—and historical precedents from 2018 and 2022 point toward a push above $100,000 before any meaningful pullback. A short-term retracement is possible, but the prevailing trend favors higher levels over the next days and weeks.
Ethereum Outlook and Correlation
Ethereum nearly reached the short-term target of $3,435 before a mild pullback emerged. The 4-hour chart shows a solitary TBO Breakout, while the weekly candle tagged its TBO Fast line, reinforcing the potential for further gains alongside Bitcoin. However, early signs of a pivot high on both timeframes caution that a brief consolidation may precede any continuation.
Additionally, ETH/BTC has respected overhead resistance over the past days, indicating Ethereum has not outperformed Bitcoin recently. A decisive break in that pair will be critical for assessing whether ETH can regain relative strength.
Market Composition and Dominance Metrics
Stablecoin dominance on the daily chart exhibits hidden bullish divergence—yesterday’s lower high in dominance contrasts with a higher low in RSI—implying the broader market, including Bitcoin, could experience a pullback before resuming upward. While I anticipate one more move toward the top of the daily TBO Cloud for BTC, timing remains uncertain.
Bitcoin Dominance unexpectedly rose, triggering selling pressure across altcoins. With BTC.D RSI over 70, a reversal is likely soon, which historically benefits alt assets. Conversely, OTHERS.D RSI has steadily declined, and TOTALES.D mirrors BTC with bearish divergence. TOTALE50 shows building bullish momentum despite a lower RSI, while TOTALE100 and OTHERS remain weak. The OTHERS/BTC ratio is losing strength toward 0.11 support.
Macro Influences: Yen, Equities and Precious Metals
The Japanese yen weakened to just under 160 USD/JPY—the weakest since July 2024—heightening expectations for Bank of Japan intervention and potential volatility across global markets. The Nikkei set a new high, yet history warns of significant drawdowns: after the last BOJ intervention in August 2024, the Nikkei fell 28%, the S&P 500 dropped 9.7%, and Bitcoin declined 30% over ensuing months. Gold outperformed, declining only 5% before rising again.
While the DXY shows no immediate reversal, the VIX has climbed, reflecting increased market fear. Other precious metals may see heightened volatility; for example, platinum is printing a TBT Bearish Divergence cluster on its daily chart.
Altcoin Market Overview
Among top altcoins, BNB reached the daily TBO Cloud ceiling and is retracing alongside Bitcoin, with a lower RSI high suggesting caution. SOL confirmed a TBO Open Long but also printed a lower RSI peak. BCH and ZEC closed TBO Long signals, warning of reversal risk. XMR continues its uptrend with a pronounced wick below $800, though RSI is overbought.
PEPE may retest overhead resistance after its TBO line rose. ICP surged 25% toward $6, its historical TBO Resistance. RENDER, OP, and ZEN on 4-hour charts printed exhaustion breakouts, while IP’s breakout shows growing volume and RSI, targeting the daily Cloud near $5.10. STX’s 4-hour bearish divergence and FARTCOIN’s early weakness reinforce the likelihood of a small pullback across alt markets—even as I maintain an overall bullish stance toward a renewed push to or above $100,000 for Bitcoin.
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