After so many years of waiting – and just two months after I published my silver book – we have silver above $100!
Truly exceptional event.
Is the rally going to last, though?
The momentum is breathtaking.
The fundamentals continue to be very favorable. Pretty much everything I wrote in the book is starting to play out, and many more catalysts remain to be activated.
And yet – no market moves up or down without periodic corrections. Is one about to take place on the silver market? Will gold and mining stocks decline from here?
The chart above shows how low silver could fall when it finally tops – probably to the $50 - $60 area. At this time, it seems quite possible that we won’t see silver below $50 in our lifetimes. At least not for long, if it happens at all.
The chart below shows how far silver could rally in the near term.
Each previous major top could have been forecasted based on the 2002 top, the previous top, and the Fibonacci extension tool. Right now, this tool points to $120.
The Psychology of $100
Crazy? And wasn’t $100 silver crazy just a few months ago?
Then again, $100 is an extremely round number. Extremely important psychologically. It’s the price that was talked about over and over again for decades. It’s here. And I’m sure that many investors will take this opportunity to take profits.
Will the momentum keep going? That’s possible, but… It’s also true that it’s hardest to let go of the final part of the upswing, while it’s often the wisest thing to do. Yes, it’s possible that we’ll get even higher prices, but is betting on it worth the risk of having the gains erased in a flash?
A Cautionary Reminder
Remember what happened in 2011?
In just 6 trading days, silver erased two months of gains.
At this moment, two scenarios for silver are likely:
1. It’s topping just below $102 as I’m typing this
2. It’s about to soar to $120 and top there.
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