Bitcoin loses support as downside targets remain in focus
Bitcoin fell to Daily TBO Support at $63,913 on Wednesday and continued to decline, placing the market in position to print its first daily TBO Breakdown. The move has already removed all but one short-term support level in roughly 22 days, reinforcing the bearish structure despite deeply oversold conditions.
Daily RSI closed at 7.69, below the February 5th low and ahead of several major historical capitulation-style readings from 2023, 2022, 2020, 2019, and 2018. While the market is extremely oversold, the analysis does not treat that as an immediate bounce signal; the downside path remains a break below $60,000, followed by targets near $49,000 and $38,555.
Ethereum confirms bearish continuation
Ethereum already confirmed a TBO Breakdown on Wednesday and is working on a second breakdown today. Its RSI closed at 9.52, lower than the February 5th dump reading, which confirms that the weakness is not limited to Bitcoin alone.
The current ETH setup supports the broader view that crypto remains under pressure. Bitcoin and Ethereum are both showing TBO breakdown behavior, leaving the market vulnerable to additional forced volatility from both over-levered shorts and longs.
Stablecoin dominance and BTC dominance create the key risk signal
Combined stablecoin dominance pushed above TBO Resistance on Wednesday's close and made a new high at 12.400% today, leaving only 0.600% before the 13% accumulation trigger level. STABLE.C.D already confirmed a first TBO Breakout on Wednesday, with a second breakout in progress.
BTC dominance has also delivered an unusually sharp move, dropping more than 5% in 19 days while RSI reached 3.67 on Wednesday. The warning is that if BTC dominance stops falling while stablecoin dominance continues rising, ALTs could experience the strongest downside pressure as capital exits the market.
Total crypto market structure remains bearish
TOTALES, the total crypto market capitalization excluding stablecoins, is also working on a daily TBO Breakdown. It has taken out the last two short-term support steps, leaving the February 6th low at 1.77 trillion as the final nearby support reference, while daily RSI is on track to close below the February 5th low.
The TOTALE50 and TOTALE100 charts both remain strong bearish despite the bullish-looking TOTALE50.D chart. OTHERS is working on its third daily TBO Close Long, and OTHERS/BTC has gone parabolic, creating a sharp contrast between temporary relative strength and broader market risk.
TradFi shows mixed strength and warning signals
DXY remains strong bullish above the daily TBO Cloud, while EURUSD is approaching short-term support and USDJPY continues to close above TBO Resistance. S&P Futures closed down 1.06% on Wednesday due to renewed Middle East tensions, but the chart remains strong bullish apart from a clear bearish divergence between higher price highs and lower RSI highs.
SPX ended its third overbought RSI streak and closed down 0.74%, while DJI printed a TBT Bearish Divergence and closed down 1.21%. VIX remains strong bearish below the daily Cloud, indicating that real fear or uncertainty has not yet appeared in the S&P.
ALT charts split between breakdowns and isolated strength
Major ALTs continue to show broad breakdown pressure. XRP confirmed its third and final TBO Breakdown, SOL is working on its third consecutive breakdown, DOGE opened below TBO Support, ADA dropped more than 11% after confirming its third breakdown, and AVAX, SUI, LINK, and CHZ are also showing ongoing TBO breakdown behavior.
There are isolated pockets of strength, but many come with caution. HYPE is stalling at $73 with RSI falling, TON and QNT are printing TBO Close Long signals, WLD and DEXE produced extreme upside moves, and INJ remains strong bullish while volume fades and RSI slips below its support line.
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