Bitcoin opened July with a constructive 2.39% daily close and an upper wick just above $61,000. That is enough to keep the bullish reversal attempt alive, but not enough to remove risk from the setup. The market is still trading below the daily TBO Cloud, and the next important test is the daily Fast line near $62,000. If Bitcoin reaches that level and stalls, the July bounce could still become a lower-high rejection.
Bitcoin keeps the July reversal attempt alive
The bullish case starts with Bitcoin’s Wednesday close. While the daily candle did not become the bullish engulfing candle that traders would have preferred, the broader setup remains constructive. OBV is still below its white moving average line, but the expectation is that a bullish cross could develop this week if buyers continue to follow through. The key is balance: July seasonality may be supportive, but the chart is still in a strong bearish position below the TBO Cloud.
Ethereum follows Bitcoin with a larger upside reference
Ethereum is in the same boat as Bitcoin. The market is watching for a similar OBV cross above the white moving average line this week, while the weekly Fast line just above $2,000 becomes the larger target if the bounce continues. That level is roughly 27% above the referenced price area, making it important for traders to understand both the opportunity and the risk. The analysis emphasized that there are no guarantees, and that portfolio protection remains the priority even during a potentially bullish month.
Stablecoin dominance sends a bullish risk-asset message
The most important broad-market signal came from combined stablecoin dominance, which printed a TBT Bearish Divergence on Wednesday. That is a bearish reversal signal for stablecoin dominance, but it can be bullish for Bitcoin and altcoins. If stablecoin dominance falls, it implies capital may be rotating out of safety and back into risk assets. The analysis specifically noted that a break of RSI support on this chart would be a bullish continuation sign for crypto.
Total crypto market OBV shows a meaningful shift
TOTALES echoed the same message. The total crypto market cap is still tied closely to Bitcoin and Ethereum, but the bigger development is that RSI is putting in higher lows while OBV is pushing above its white moving average line for the first time since May 25. If that OBV signal can close bullishly, it speaks volumes for the entire crypto market cap heading into July. TOTALE50 and TOTALE100 are also showing bullish divergence characteristics, adding to the idea that breadth may be improving beneath the surface.
USDJPY remains the macro chart that could derail the bounce
The main macro risk remains USDJPY. The pair made another local high on Wednesday at 162.837, while RSI is on an overbought streak of ten bars and counting. There is still no confirmed Bank of Japan or Ministry of Finance intervention headline. That combination matters because yen stress and dollar strength can pressure global risk appetite. The analysis framed USDJPY as the one chart that could screw up the July bounce for crypto.
Altcoins show more bounce setups, led by Solana
Altcoins finished the analysis with a long list of oversold and reversal-watch candidates. Solana stood out after confirming a second recent TBO Close Short near TBO Support, which was described as a major reversal signal, especially with an OBV cross-up event also in progress. XRP, DOGE, ADA, BCH, HBAR, SUI, TAO, MNT, NEAR, PEPE, WLD, KAS, VIRTUAL, MON, SEI, AERO, SPX6900, LIT, FARTCOIN, and WIF all had notable bounce or strength comments. At the same time, the analysis warned that not every chart is equal: DEXE and VVV were framed as safer but less attractive than more oversold opportunities, while LAB remains very risky even if it recovers.
The message is not that July is guaranteed to be bullish. It is that the market finally has several constructive ingredients at the same time: Bitcoin and Ethereum reversal attempts, stablecoin dominance rolling over, total-market OBV improving, and multiple altcoin bounce setups. The risk is that USDJPY, equity-market warning signs, or a Bitcoin rejection near $62,000 could interrupt the move. Traders should respect both sides and continue protecting profit while the market proves whether this July bounce has legs.
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