Bitcoin’s cloud test keeps the market brief focused on confirmation

Kitco Media
By Aaron Dishner
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Bitcoin’s cloud test keeps the market brief focused on confirmation teaser image

 

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Bitcoin took out another support step during Tuesday's drop, but closed back inside its daily Cloud. That distinction shapes the Better Traders read: breadth, macro and ALT conditions have weakened, yet several of the strongest bearish conclusions still depend on confirmed closes rather than intraday wicks.

Bitcoin lost another support step but has not confirmed the Cloud break

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Bitcoin daily chart testing the TBO Cloud

BTC wicked below $63,000 and removed a second support step, while RSI remains below support and OBV remains bearish. The source explicitly wants a daily close below the Cloud before calling the bearish case confirmed. A weekly bearish engulfing candle, if confirmed, would add to the August downside case.

Ethereum weakened after tagging its Fast line

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Ethereum chart after tagging its Fast line

ETH tagged its Fast line on the pullback, closing the July 10 Close Short. RSI is weakening and contesting support/resistance, but the source does not view this as a good fresh entry. It also notes that ETH has not yet shown the weekly bearish-engulfing evidence being monitored on BTC.

New to Crypto with a close-up of a bitcoin and ethereum

Dominance and breadth show a defensive backdrop

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Crypto breadth chart testing the daily TBO Cloud

Combined stablecoin dominance wicked to the top of its daily Cloud, a development the source treats as potentially bearish for crypto only if it closes above the Cloud and prints an Open Long. BTC dominance remains in bearish consolidation, SOL dominance is strong bearish, and TOTALES wicked below its Cloud. Dominance is market share, not a direct spot-price call.

Dollar strength and equity divergence keep macro mixed

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Dollar index above the TBO Cloud

DXY closed red but remains above the Cloud in strong-bullish mode, while the source watches bearish-divergence clusters for a pullback. USDJPY remains very strong bullish despite a potential bearish RSI reset. The analysis frames a dollar pullback as potentially constructive for risk assets, but notes historically weaker August and September seasonality.

Equity and Asian-market signals remain uneven

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NASDAQ 100 chart making a lower local low

S&P futures remain in bearish consolidation, the Dow moved to TBO resistance and NDX made a lower local low. TSLA confirmed a third consecutive Breakdown, though the source cautions that these arrived late and low after the June Open Short and could allow a short-term bounce. Asian markets are split, with Nikkei working on an Open Short and KOSPI deeply oversold.

ALT weakness remains broad while commodities need reaction

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Solana chart shifting into strong bearish mode

SOL closed below its Cloud into strong-bearish mode, while XRP made a lower local low and NEAR made the same Cloud break with oversold RSI. QNT, ALGO, WLD, FET, VVV and LDO also show weakness in the source. Gold and silver have bullish-divergence evidence, but the source warns that failure to respond this week could lead to further downside.

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Kitco Media

Aaron Dishner

Co-founder and lead instructor at The Better Traders, Inc., an international crypto education company, and owner of the popular crypto bot trading YouTube channel Moonin Papa, Aaron Dishner serves over 25,000 students across 36 countries as a world-leading bot trader and crypto day trading and swing trading expert. Combining his passion for educational excellence, stemming from a professional teaching background, with his remarkable skill set in crypto trading, Aaron’s mission is to make trading safe and accessible so anyone can learn to benefit from the greatest financial revolution of our time.
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