opinion

Silver near $60: August drop?

Kitco Media
By CPM Group
Published:
Updated:
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In this presentation, Jeffrey Christian of CPM Group provides a precious metals update, covering the gold price outlook, silver market analysis, COMEX positioning, inflation, economic growth, Federal Reserve interest rates, and growing risks in the stock market.

Gold reached approximately $4,138 during the morning. Jeff explains why that may be the near-term peak and why gold and silver could soften during the first two or three weeks of August.

The August COMEX gold futures roll is now largely behind the market. Open interest in the August contract fell from 27.5 million ounces at the end of June to 2.7 million ounces. Most of those positions moved into the December contract. Jeffrey also reviews COMEX gold inventories and explains why claims of an imminent inventory shortage do not match the available data.

Silver continues to trade around $60. CPM Group expects both gold and silver to face short-term pressure before prices potentially strengthen during the final four months of the year. Jeffrey also discusses platinum and palladium, which remain weaker than gold and silver.

Jeff then discusses lower U.S. GDP growth, consumer spending, disposable income, and inflation that remains above the Federal Reserve’s target. Jeffrey explains why CPM has moved its recession expectation into the 2027–2029 period.

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CPM Group

CPM Group is a commodities research, consulting, financialadvisory and commodities management firm providing independent research,analysis and advisory services related to commodities markets, corporate andproject finance, and the financial management of exposure to commodity orientedinvestments.

We started our business in 1986 predicated on the idea that commoditiesresearch and advice is best delivered by independent experts who do not work forbanks, brokers, mining companies, or any other entity that has interests thatcould conflict with the best interests of the clients receiving the research,analysis, and advice.

All of our work is driven by fundamental commodities research and economicanalysis. As we undertake our research into individual commodities markets wegather a tremendous amount of information and develop an enormous body ofextremely high quality, unbiased analysis of the markets and the companies thatare involved with individual commodities. The outputs of our research andanalysis take the form of research reports, specialized and targeted consultingrelated to these markets, financial advisory services ranging from corporate andproject finance structuring to equity introductions, and managing specificcommodities and investment positions for clients.

CPM Group continues to demonstrate the economic value and financial worth ofsuperior research, information, and analysis. Our research is based onmicro-economic analysis of the individual components of each commodity market,wedded with a top-down macro-economic analysis of the global trends affectingthese markets. We apply the results of that analysis to our research,consulting, and advisory services.

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goldU.S. GDPJeffrey ChristianAugust COMEXsilverinflationFederal Reserve
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Kitco Metals Inc. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Kitco Metals Inc. nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Kitco Metals Inc. and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.