The Better Traders read for August 11 begins with a Monday crypto pullback after Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz. Bitcoin's early 4h bearish-divergence warning played out, Ethereum confirmed a drop below support, and broad ALT structure remains fragile. At the same time, CPI leaves the Dollar Index at a two-path decision, US equities remain structurally strong, and oil and metals are repricing geopolitical risk.
Bitcoin drops 1.44% as its daily trend starts leaning bearish again
BTC closed Monday down -1.44% after Iran decided to close the Strait of Hormuz. The earlier TBT Bearish Divergence warnings on the 4h were described as accurate. Daily RSI fell to 44.14, but the source explicitly says that is not low enough to be concerned or excited. The more important change is the daily Slow line beginning to curl downward, indicating that the macro trend is leaning more bearish. BTC may still take time to follow that trend; the thesis is not an immediate breakdown call.
Ethereum confirms a support loss, while resistance confirmation needs a retest
ETH closed nearly -2% and confirmed a drop below short-term support, the reaction the source had been waiting for. That support loss is already confirmed. A different confirmation remains conditional: if ETH returns to the lost level, tests it and is rejected, the line should be confirmed as resistance. RSI and OBV remain bearish without major changes. ETH/BTC also printed its second close inside the Cloud in about a week, supporting an expected deeper Cloud close by next week, while bearish divergence clusters on ETH.D and ETH/BTC underpin the source's thesis that ETH should drop much harder with time.
Dominance is mixed, but broad ALT structure has not turned healthy
BTC.D only drifted lower and remains in chop. Stablecoin dominance rose with the pullback but has no major bullish signal unless it closes above its Cloud and prints a TBO Open Long. ETH.D barely entered its Cloud. SOL.D moved above the daily Cloud, yet no other major bullish signs were visible and RSI was overbought, so the source expects a reversal sooner or later. OTHERS.D raised TBO Support from 6.94% to 7.37%, making Monday's low a potential pivot only while the chart holds above it; a close below would signal a very strong bearish downtrend. The chart is already described as very strong bearish. TOTALE100.D's 4h bullish-divergence cluster and Close Short are early warnings, not confirmation, and TOTALES should lead lower only after its short-term support breaks. Dominance measures market share, not spot price, so none of these signals is a direct BTC price call.
DXY faces a CPI fork while US equity structure stays strong
DXY closed slightly higher Monday but remains at long-term support. The source thinks support looks vulnerable, an outcome that would benefit stocks and the Yen. CPI on Wednesday and the Fed's prior inflation remarks create the alternative: DXY may bounce to the Fast line, closing last Thursday's TBO Close Long. Such a bounce would pressure the Euro and could lift USDJPY to its Fast line, closing a recent bearish reversal warning. USDJPY already moved back into its Cloud and into bullish consolidation; the ideal sequence is a test and rejection at newly lost support followed by a break below 155.025. S&P futures were flat near $7,780 while waiting for CPI, but the chart and other US indices remain very strong bullish. NVDA confirmed a bullish bump-and-run support retest, TSLA remains strong bearish below its Cloud with 337.25 as historical support-turned-resistance, and SPCX gained 4% without clearing its 0.382 Fib level despite strong OBV and volume. The VIX has not reached 13.35; the source expects that eventual market-top signal to take several weeks.
Strait risk drives oil and metals, but the commodity tape carries caveats
Iran's Strait closure drove WTI up 6.65% on Monday, with the source hoping for one more push to close the upper gap. Gold continues to rally with an immediate target around 4,542, while Silver is approaching long-term overhead resistance after tagging its weekly Fast line and closing prior TBO Close Longs. Platinum pierced overhead resistance again and opened above it, but remains trapped below the 0.236 Fib level. Copper should continue higher only if the Strait stays closed. Uranium went overbought on RSI, explicitly creating a take-profit opportunity. PAXG/BTC reached TBO Resistance as Gold broke out, but the inverted BTC/Gold chart is oversold, so the source warns against getting too excited about the Gold uptrend lasting longer. In Asia, Nikkei remains in bearish consolidation despite a slight Cloud wick and is expected to make a new all-time high in about a month; Shanghai remains in bullish consolidation with an open Close Short, Hang Seng is still battling the 0.786 retracement, and KOSPI's bullish divergence is constrained by overhead resistance and a strong-bearish state below its Cloud.
ALT losses, exhaustion risk and selective divergences demand discrimination
XRP closed below daily TBO Support; 0.9380 is the next real support, the source does not expect it to hold, and at least 0.72 is the stated lower target. BNB's RSI only partly broke its support and the pullback was not severe enough. SOL still has an open TBO Close Short expected to fill, but a real support break is still pending. ADA is expected to retrace to its daily Fast line; XMR nearly reached resistance, identified as a take-profit zone; CC's oversold bounce is losing energy; and CRO's lower RSI low implies more downside. MNT's late breakout cluster is viewed as likely exhaustion, not continuation. BEAT fell 50% and produced another Close Long, with a direct warning against chasing that chart. ICP's 3% move is accompanied by unwelcome 4h breakouts, PUMP keeps rising with RSI threatening its prior 82.99 high, WLD and XPL printed bullish divergences, RENDER is entering historical support, FET is nearing support loss, BONK is oversold again, CRV's 11% pump is approaching resistance where the last two advances pulled back, JASMY confirmed a third breakdown, and FARTCOIN printed another Close Short. These are distinct states and triggers, not one blanket ALT call.
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