Gold and silver prices are surging: Why are dealers paying below spot?

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By CPM Group
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Gold and silver prices are surging: Why are dealers paying below spot? teaser image

In this presentation, Jeffrey Christian of CPM Group provides a precious metals update covering the sharp August rally in gold and silver, the Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole meeting, slowing economic conditions, persistent inflation, physical bullion selling, and global debt.

Gold had risen to over $4,600, while silver is trading near $71.38. CPM Group had expected gold to remain relatively subdued through much of August before strengthening around the time of Jackson Hole. Instead, investor buying began earlier. Jeff explains why CPM continues to expect political, economic, fiscal, and financial risks to support another wave of gold and silver investment demand during the final four months of 2026 and potentially into 2027.

The presentation also looks at an unusual development in the physical precious metals market. Gold and silver prices are rising, but some investors selling smaller physical quantities are being offered discounted prices to spot. Jeff explains why this is happening, and whether it is should be of concern to investors.

Jeff also discusses the Federal Reserve Interest Rate outlook following Jackson Hole. U.S. economic growth is slowing, job creation has weakened, consumers are becoming more cautious, and inflation remains above the Federal Reserve’s preferred level. These conflicting pressures complicate monetary policy.

Silver has begun participating more strongly in the precious metals rally, although global investor interest remains greater in gold.

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CPM Group

CPM Group is a commodities research, consulting, financialadvisory and commodities management firm providing independent research,analysis and advisory services related to commodities markets, corporate andproject finance, and the financial management of exposure to commodity orientedinvestments.

We started our business in 1986 predicated on the idea that commoditiesresearch and advice is best delivered by independent experts who do not work forbanks, brokers, mining companies, or any other entity that has interests thatcould conflict with the best interests of the clients receiving the research,analysis, and advice.

All of our work is driven by fundamental commodities research and economicanalysis. As we undertake our research into individual commodities markets wegather a tremendous amount of information and develop an enormous body ofextremely high quality, unbiased analysis of the markets and the companies thatare involved with individual commodities. The outputs of our research andanalysis take the form of research reports, specialized and targeted consultingrelated to these markets, financial advisory services ranging from corporate andproject finance structuring to equity introductions, and managing specificcommodities and investment positions for clients.

CPM Group continues to demonstrate the economic value and financial worth ofsuperior research, information, and analysis. Our research is based onmicro-economic analysis of the individual components of each commodity market,wedded with a top-down macro-economic analysis of the global trends affectingthese markets. We apply the results of that analysis to our research,consulting, and advisory services.

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Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of Kitco Metals Inc. The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Kitco Metals Inc. nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Kitco Metals Inc. and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.